Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens faceoff against Mac Jones and the New England Patriots. The Ravens enter the game as a favorite (-140) despite being on the road. Baltimore is currently favored by -2.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 44.0.
Baltimore's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #26 in the league while allowing 374 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #1-most yards per game: 291. The Ravens have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 185 yards per game (#1-worst). Baltimore's worst position group in coverage has been their cornerbacks, which rank just #29 in the league in locking down route-runners. Baltimore's pass rush has been weak this year, being weighed down by their defensive tackles, which check in as just the #27-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. This represents a particular disadvantage for Baltimore given that the Patriots have excelled in the pass game this year, accumulating 7.65 yards per target (#7-best in the league). In terms of their offense, the Ravens have ranked #19 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 256 yards per game (#13 in football). On the ground they've ranked #23 with 3.98 yards per carry.
New England's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 314 yards per game -- #4-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #4-least yards per game: 198. The New England Patriots pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing tight ends, who have managed just 23 yards per game against them (#32-least in football). New England's best coverage unit has been their safeties, which grade out as the #3 unit in the NFL in this regard. When it comes to their offense, the Patriots check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 257 yards per game (#12 in football). Their run game has ranked #8 with 4.51 yards per attempt on the ground.
Baltimore Ravens Insights
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens linebackers grade out as the 6th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.68 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
New England Patriots Insights
The Sharp Model projects Mac Jones to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (10.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.2% in games he has played).
Nelson Agholor's pass-catching effectiveness has been refined this year, averaging 11.93 yards-per-target compared to a measly 8.39 mark last year.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.65 Units / 28% ROI)
The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Mark Andrews has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 45% ROI)