Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022

Editor

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens faceoff against Mac Jones and the New England Patriots. The Ravens enter the game as a favorite (-140) despite being on the road. Baltimore is currently favored by -2.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 44.0.

Baltimore's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #26 in the league while allowing 374 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #1-most yards per game: 291. The Ravens have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 185 yards per game (#1-worst). Baltimore's worst position group in coverage has been their cornerbacks, which rank just #29 in the league in locking down route-runners. Baltimore's pass rush has been weak this year, being weighed down by their defensive tackles, which check in as just the #27-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. This represents a particular disadvantage for Baltimore given that the Patriots have excelled in the pass game this year, accumulating 7.65 yards per target (#7-best in the league). In terms of their offense, the Ravens have ranked #19 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 256 yards per game (#13 in football). On the ground they've ranked #23 with 3.98 yards per carry.

New England's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 314 yards per game -- #4-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #4-least yards per game: 198. The New England Patriots pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing tight ends, who have managed just 23 yards per game against them (#32-least in football). New England's best coverage unit has been their safeties, which grade out as the #3 unit in the NFL in this regard. When it comes to their offense, the Patriots check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 257 yards per game (#12 in football). Their run game has ranked #8 with 4.51 yards per attempt on the ground.

Baltimore Ravens Insights

  • The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

  • The Baltimore Ravens linebackers grade out as the 6th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.

  • The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.68 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the NFL.

New England Patriots Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Mac Jones to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (10.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.2% in games he has played).

  • Nelson Agholor's pass-catching effectiveness has been refined this year, averaging 11.93 yards-per-target compared to a measly 8.39 mark last year.

  • The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Betting Trends

  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.65 Units / 28% ROI)

  • The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.80 Units / 24% ROI)

  • Mark Andrews has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 45% ROI)