Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Preview - November 27th, 2022
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens faceoff against Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Ravens enter the game as a favorite (-165) despite being on the road. Baltimore is currently favored by -3.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 43.0.
Jacksonville's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #7 in football at 358 yards per game. The quality of their rushing attack has led to much of their success. The Jaguars 5.24 yards per carry ranks #1-best in the NFL. What makes the Jaguars run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 11.1% of the time, the #3-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Jacksonville hasn't been thwarted. When it comes to their defense, the Jaguars check in at #25 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 255 yards per game against Jacksonville this year (#28 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 against them with 4.32 yards per ground attempt. This Jaguars defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, allowing them to complete just 69.2% of their passes (#10-lowest in the league). Jacksonville's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 43 yards per game (#5-worst in the league).
Baltimore's biggest weakness has been their pass defense, ranking #29 in the league while allowing 259 yards per game through the air. The Ravens have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing tight ends, allowing them to complete 82.3% of their targets (#2-highest in football). In terms of their offense, the Ravens have ranked #27 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 208 yards per game (#27 in football). On the ground they've ranked #13 with 4.54 yards per carry.
Baltimore Ravens Insights
The Sharp Model projects Lamar Jackson to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (34.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (24.3% in games he has played).
Demarcus Robinson has posted far more air yards this season (39.0 per game) than he did last season (23.0 per game).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.46 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-most in football.
Jacksonville Jaguars Insights
The Sharp Model projects this game to play at the 13th-slowest pace among all games this week, averaging 27.55 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 5th-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
The Baltimore Ravens have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 26% ROI)
Zay Jones has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.80 Units / 58% ROI)