Sharp App: Sports Betting

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns Matchup Preview - December 17th, 2022

Saturday the Baltimore Ravens (9-4) will battle the Cleveland Browns (5-8). Oddsmakers peg the Browns as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 59%, leaving the Ravens with a 41% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Browns -3.0 with a Game Total of 39.0.

Cleveland's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 373 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #10 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #3-most yards per carry: 5.29. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their pass defense, which has landed them in the #24 spot in terms of yards per target (8.06). Browns defensive tackles are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #3-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for Cleveland given that the Ravens ground game has been so good this year, rushing for 4.58 yards per carry (#11-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Browns check in at #5 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 241 yards per game (#17 in football). Their run game has ranked #10 with 4.6 yards per attempt on the ground.

Baltimore's biggest strength has been their run defense, which ranks #3 in the league while allowing just 3.91 yards per carry this season. They've succeeded in stopping the run (in part) because of their aggressiveness in stacking the box. They've brought up a safety or extra defender 18.8% of the time this year, #10-most of any team in football. The Ravens defensive tackles have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #7-best in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Ravens have ranked #27 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 203 yards per game (#28 in football). On the ground they've ranked #11 with 4.58 yards per carry.

Baltimore Ravens Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Tyler Huntley's throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 68.9% to 78.9%.

  • The Cleveland Browns pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.

Cleveland Browns Insights

  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

  • Amari Cooper has totaled significantly more air yards this year (106.0 per game) than he did last year (85.0 per game).

  • The Cleveland Browns have gone for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.65 Units / 44% ROI)

  • The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.65 Units / 21% ROI)

  • David Njoku has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.45 Units / 45% ROI)