Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Preview - January 15th, 2023

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Sunday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Baltimore Ravens (10-7) and Cincinnati Bengals (12-4). Oddsmakers peg the Bengals as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 78%, leaving the Ravens with a 22% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bengals -8.0 with a Game Total of 40.0.

Cincinnati's chief advantage has been their pass offense, which ranks #5 in the NFL at 276 yards per game through the air. When it comes to their defense, the Bengals check in at #3 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 206 yards per game against Cincinnati this year (#9 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #5 against them with 4.24 yards per ground attempt. This Bengals defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 35 yards per game (#3-best in the league). Cincinnati's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have caught 77.7% of their passes (#3-highest in the league).

Baltimore's biggest strength has been their run defense, which ranks #3 in the league while allowing just 4.01 yards per carry this season. They've succeeded in stopping the run (in part) because of their aggressiveness in stacking the box. They've brought up a safety or extra defender 18.8% of the time this year, #10-most of any team in football. The Ravens safeties have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #5-best in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Ravens have ranked #26 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 195 yards per game (#28 in football). On the ground they've ranked #4 with 4.88 yards per carry.

Baltimore Ravens Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Mark Andrews has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (79.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Mark Andrews to accrue 0.28 receiving touchdowns in this game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.

Cincinnati Bengals Insights

  • The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

  • The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 5th-best unit in football this year in regard to run defense.

  • The Baltimore Ravens defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the NFL.

Betting Trends

  • The Baltimore Ravens have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)

  • Devin Duvernay has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.65 Units / 52% ROI)