Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022

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Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens faceoff against Zach Wilson and the New York Jets. The Ravens enter the game as a huge favorite (-330) despite being on the road. Baltimore is currently favored by -7.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 44.5.

New York's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 404 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #1 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #1-most yards per carry: 5.05. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their pass defense, which has landed them in the #32 spot in terms of yards per target (8.85). Not to rub salt in the wound, but New York has had these struggles despite stacking the box with an extra defender 22% of the time -- #3-most of any team in football. You'd think that would at least put a band-aid on the issue, but to this point it doesn't seem to be working very well. Jets linebackers are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #1-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Jets check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 239 yards per game (#16 in football). Their run game has ranked #19 with 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground.

Baltimore's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #23 in the league while allowing 363 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #1-most yards per game: 278. The Ravens have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 9.45 yards per target (#1-worst). Baltimore's worst position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank just #28 in the league in locking down route-runners. Baltimore's pass rush has been weak this year, being weighed down by their defensive tackles, which check in as just the #29-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Ravens have ranked #17 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 260 yards per game (#13 in football). On the ground they've ranked #19 with 4.1 yards per carry.

Baltimore Ravens Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (36.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.2% in games he has played).

  • Mark Andrews has put up a colossal 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among tight ends.

  • The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has struggled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 8.30 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-most in football.

New York Jets Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 121.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • The New York Jets defensive ends grade out as the 7th-best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

  • The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Jets have hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 2 games at home (+4.80 Units / 209% ROI)

  • The Baltimore Ravens have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)

  • Mark Andrews has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.75 Units / 53% ROI)