Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Preview - October 9th, 2022

The Atlanta Falcons come in as 10.0 point road underdog as they travel to Raymond James Stadium to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 13 in 2021. That game resulted in a home win for the Buccaneers with a final score of 30-17. They say, good teams win, but great teams cover. The Buccaneers not only won, but covered the -11.0 spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 51.0 and which the Under hit.

Atlanta's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #10 in the league with 178 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their rushing attack, which is #1-best in football with 5.77 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Atlanta's o-line ranks #1-best in this regard. In terms of their defense, the Falcons have ranked #26 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 268 yards per game through the air against them (#23 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #28 with 5.3 yards per carry. Positionally, perhaps their best defensive asset has been their cornerbacks, which rank #7 in the league in locking down route-runners. Atlanta has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 70 yards per game (#4-worst).

Tampa Bay's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #29 in football with a low 3.49 yards per carry. When it comes to their defense, the Buccaneers check in at #4 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 210 yards per game against Tampa Bay this year (#9 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #12 against them with 4.35 yards per ground attempt. This Buccaneers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 14 yards per game (#1-best in the league). Tampa Bay's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have caught 79.2% of their passes (#6-highest in the league).

Atlanta Falcons Insights

• The Sharp Model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.90 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Tom Brady to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (7.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.4% in games he has played).

• Mike Evans's pass-game efficiency has gotten better this year, totaling 12.44 yards-per-target vs just 9.97 figure last year.

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Betting Trends

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.70 Units / 32% ROI)

• The Atlanta Falcons have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)

• Anthony Firkser has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 games (+7.20 Units / 72% ROI)