Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022


The Atlanta Falcons come in as 1.0 point road underdog as they travel to Lumen Field to play the Seattle Seahawks. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 1 in 2020. That game resulted in a home win for the Seahawks with a final score of 38-25.

Seattle's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 383 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #3 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #2-most yards per game (266) against the Seahawks. Opposing running backs have given the Seahawks the most trouble, posting 62 yards per game against this defense (#1-worst in football). Seattle's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their safeties, who rank just #29 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. Seattle's defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #3-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for Seattle given that the Falcons air attack has been so good this year, passing their way to 7.03 yards per target (#19-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Seahawks check in at #26 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 212 yards per game (#26 in football). Their run game has ranked #4 with 4.83 yards per attempt on the ground.

Atlanta's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #23 in the league with a mere 315 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #8-worst in football with just 3.92 yards per carry. This is even sadder because they've faced a stacked box the #10-least of any team in the league at 17.6%. Even without that extra tackler that teams sometimes bring up near the line of scrimmage, the Falcons have still struggled on the ground. This represents a particular disadvantage for Atlanta given that the Seahawks have excelled in stopping the run this year, allowing just 4.06 yards per carry (#5-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Falcons have ranked #26 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 240 yards per game through the air against them (#22 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #22 with 4.67 yards per carry. Atlanta has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 70.5% completion rate (#2-highest).

Atlanta Falcons Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Marcus Mariota to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (25.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.3% in games he has played).

  • The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 4th-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • The Sharp Model projects Cordarrelle Patterson to compile 0.17 receiving TDs this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among running backs.

Seattle Seahawks Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 118.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Geno Smith's throwing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 68.8% to 80.5%.

  • The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has not been good when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.92 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-most in the NFL.

Betting Trends

  • The Seattle Seahawks have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.50 Units / 29% ROI)

  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)

  • Geno Smith has hit the Interceptions Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)