Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Matchup Preview - November 10th, 2022


The Carolina Panthers come in as 2.5 point home underdog as they play the Atlanta Falcons at Bank of America Stadium Thursday. The last time these two teams played was in Week 8 of 2022. That game produced a lot of points, as the visiting Falcons pulled off the road win 37-34. Although the Falcons recorded the win, they failed to cover the -4.0 point spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 41.0 and which the Over hit.

Carolina's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #31 in football with a low 274 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #29 in the league with just 183 yards per game. One consequence of this ineffectiveness has been the ability for opposing defenses to stack the box against them to stop the run, bringing up at least one extra defender 19.7% of the time. When it comes to their defense, the Panthers check in at #26 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 244 yards per game against Carolina this year (#20 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #21 against them with 4.85 yards per ground attempt. This Panthers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 7.72 yards per target (#9-best in the league). Carolina's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 7.19 yards per target (#3-worst in the league).

Atlanta's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #32 in the league while allowing 426 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #1-most yards per game: 310. The Falcons have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 207 yards per game (#1-worst). Atlanta's pass rush has been weak this year, being weighed down by their linebackers, which check in as just the #28-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Falcons have ranked #24 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 170 yards per game (#30 in football). On the ground they've ranked #5 with 4.92 yards per carry.

Atlanta Falcons Insights

  • The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

  • Marcus Mariota has passed for a lot more yards per game (170.0) this season than he did last season (1.0).

  • The Sharp Model projects Kyle Pitts to notch 0.28 receiving touchdowns in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.

Carolina Panthers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Phillip Walker to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (7.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).

  • D.J. Moore has notched far fewer air yards this season (92.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).

  • The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.82 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.

Betting Trends

  • The Carolina Panthers have scored first in 11 of their last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 45% ROI)

  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)

  • Marcus Mariota has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 40% ROI)