Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams Matchup Preview - September 18th, 2022


Sunday the Atlanta Falcons (0-1) will battle the Los Angeles Rams (0-1). Oddsmakers peg the Rams as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 79%, leaving the Falcons with a 21% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Rams -10.0 with a Game Total of 46.5.

Los Angeles's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #23 in football with a low 315 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their ground attack, clocking in at #25 in the league with just 3.93 yards per carry. What makes their struggles all the more jarring is how often they've faced a stacked box: 17.6% of the time, the #10-least of any team in the league. Even though opposing defenses haven't brought an extra tackler up near the line of scrimmage very often, the Rams still haven't been able to get their ground game going. When it comes to their defense, the Rams check in at #27 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 238 yards per game against Los Angeles this year (#21 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #24 against them with 4.7 yards per ground attempt. Los Angeles's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have caught 70.2% of their passes (#3-highest in the league).

Atlanta's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #23 in the league with a mere 315 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #8-worst in football with just 3.93 yards per carry. This is even sadder because they've faced a stacked box the #10-least of any team in the league at 17.6%. Even without that extra tackler that teams sometimes bring up near the line of scrimmage, the Falcons have still struggled on the ground. In terms of their defense, the Falcons have ranked #27 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 238 yards per game through the air against them (#21 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #24 with 4.7 yards per carry. Atlanta has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 70.2% completion rate (#3-highest).

Atlanta Falcons Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (21.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.4% in games he has played).

  • Cordarrelle Patterson has totaled a whopping 16.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among RBs.

  • The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.01 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in the NFL.

Los Angeles Rams Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends profile as the best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

  • The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Betting Trends

  • The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 74% ROI)

  • Cooper Kupp has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.10 Units / 39% ROI)