Sharp App: Sports Betting

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers Matchup Preview - January 8th, 2023

Sunday the Arizona Cardinals (4-12) will battle the San Francisco 49ers (12-4). Oddsmakers peg the 49ers as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 88%, leaving the Cardinals with a 12% chance to record a win. The current spread is the 49ers -14.0 with a Game Total of 40.0.

San Francisco's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 320 yards per game -- #3-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 3.56. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #8 in yards per target (7.33). This 49ers run defense has been anchored by their linebackers, who grade out as the #1-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the 49ers check in at #13 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 241 yards per game (#13 in football). Their run game has ranked #3 with 4.94 yards per attempt on the ground.

Arizona's biggest weakness has been their run defense, ranking #24 in the league while allowing 5.06 yards per game on the ground. The Cardinals linebackers have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #4-worst in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular disadvantage for Arizona given that the 49ers have excelled in the run game this year, accumulating 4.94 yards per carry (#3-best in the league). In terms of their offense, the Cardinals have ranked #19 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 233 yards per game (#17 in football). On the ground they've ranked #19 with 4.26 yards per carry.

Arizona Cardinals Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • A.J. Green's receiving performance has declined this year, totaling a mere 1.8 yards per game compared to 3.1 last year.

  • The San Francisco 49ers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.87 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.

San Francisco 49ers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 3rd-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • George Kittle has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (41.0 per game) than he did last season (48.0 per game).

  • The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 40% ROI)

  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.55 Units / 36% ROI)

  • Kyler Murray has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 37% ROI)