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49ers vs Commanders Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - December 31st, 2023

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The San Francisco 49ers are set to face off against the Washington Commanders in an exciting matchup this Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. The game will take place at FedExField, the home stadium of the Commanders, which happens to be the second-largest stadium in the NFL. The size of the stadium could potentially create a louder atmosphere, providing the Commanders with a home field advantage.

The 49ers will have one less day of rest compared to the Commanders, which could impact their preparation and recovery for the game. Additionally, the 49ers will have to overcome the challenge of traveling cross-country and across three time zones, which could pose a disadvantage for them.

While the Commanders have struggled to meet their preseason expectations, the 49ers have been performing well this season with a record of 11-4. In contrast, the Commanders hold a record of 4-11 and have lost six consecutive games. On the other hand, the 49ers have only lost one game in a row.

In their previous game, the 49ers suffered a loss against the Baltimore Ravens, with a final score of 33-19. This defeat was considered a significant upset, as the 49ers were a 6.5 point favorite with a 71% chance of winning.

The last time these two teams faced each other was in Week 16 of the 2022 season, resulting in a home win for the 49ers with a score of 37-20. The 49ers displayed an impressive offensive performance in that game, scoring a substantial number of points.

Despite being on the road, the 49ers are heavily favored to win this game. The odds suggest that they have an 88% chance of winning, while the Commanders have a 12% chance. The spread initially opened at 49ers -13.5 but has since moved to 49ers -14, indicating a relatively small shift.

As the game approaches, fans and bettors alike will be eagerly anticipating the outcome of this matchup between the 49ers and the Commanders. With the 49ers' strong road record and the Commanders' recent struggles, it will be interesting to see how these factors play out on the field.

49ers Insights

  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the 49ers are forecasted by the projections to call only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.

  • The Washington Commanders linebackers profile as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

  • The San Francisco 49ers have been among the best passing offenses in football this year (#4 overall), compiling an excellent 275.0 adjusted yards per game through the air.

Commanders Insights

  • The projections expect the Washington Commanders as the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 67.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

  • Antonio Gibson's 85.9% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 79.9% mark.

  • The predictive model expects Terry McLaurin to total 0.32 receiving TDs this week, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile amongamong wide receivers.

Betting Trends

  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.15 Units / 14% ROI)

  • Curtis Samuel has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 47% ROI)

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