2024 NFL SEASON WINS BEST VALUE BETS

As we approach the kickoff of another exhilarating NFL season, the anticipation is palpable. With new rules, emerging talents, and evolving team dynamics, the 2024 season promises to be unpredictable and exciting. Among the most talked-about changes is the new rule regarding kickoffs, which could significantly impact game strategies and outcomes. As we prepare for the preseason games, it's a perfect time to explore the value plays that stand out according to my projections. Here, we'll break down the top six plays, examining each team's prospects in detail and why these bets offer intriguing value.

1. Chicago Bears - Under 8.5 Wins (+134)

The Chicago Bears enter the 2024 season with a lot of buzz, primarily due to the arrival of highly-touted rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. However, while optimism runs high, my model suggests a more cautious approach. The sportsbooks have set the Bears' win total at 8.5, with the over-heavily favored at -160, implying a 63% probability of achieving nine or more wins. In contrast, my model projects the Bears at 7.85 wins, indicating potential value in betting the under.

The Bears' roster, while improved, still has notable gaps. The offensive line remains a work in progress, and while the defense has young talent, it may not be enough to compete consistently against more established offenses. The NFC North division presents additional challenges, with the Vikings, Lions, and Packers all vying for playoff spots. Minnesota, in particular, is expected to be stronger this season, and Detroit and Green Bay both have rosters capable of contending. This competitive environment makes it challenging for the Bears to secure a high win total. Additionally, relying on a rookie quarterback, even one as promising as Williams, can be a risky proposition. Historical trends suggest that rookie quarterbacks often face a steep learning curve, particularly in a division with strong defenses.

2. Cincinnati Bengals - Under 10.5 Wins (+105)

The Cincinnati Bengals are a fascinating case study this season. With Joe Burrow at the helm, the team has shown flashes of brilliance. However, the concern centers around Burrow's health, particularly following his recent surgery. The sportsbooks have set the Bengals' win total at 10.5, with the over slightly favored, but my projections suggest caution. The model has the Bengals winning closer to 9.5 games, making the under at +105 an appealing option.

The key factor here is Burrow's recovery and durability. Even with a healthy Burrow, the Bengals' schedule is not a cakewalk. They face a division where every team has the potential to compete for a playoff spot. The Ravens, Steelers, and Browns all possess defenses capable of disrupting even the most potent offenses. Moreover, Cincinnati's defense, while solid, showed vulnerabilities last season, particularly against the pass. If Burrow misses time or isn't at full strength, the team's ceiling could be significantly lower. 

3. Denver Broncos - Over 5.5 Wins (+112)

The Denver Broncos are a team that has left fans and analysts scratching their heads over the past few seasons. With a tough schedule and lingering questions at the quarterback position, the outlook isn't overwhelmingly positive. However, the value on the over 5.5 wins at plus money is intriguing. Despite their challenges, the Broncos have a roster capable of surprising.

Last season, the Broncos managed to win several close games, often by three points or less. While this could suggest a regression is due, it's also possible that a more stable quarterback situation and improvements on both sides of the ball could help them surpass expectations. The Broncos' defense has been a strength, and if they can find consistency on offense, particularly with a more effective running game and better quarterback play, they could easily exceed the low expectations. 

4. Miami Dolphins - Avoiding Under 9.5 Wins Bet

The Miami Dolphins are one of the more enigmatic teams heading into the season. The sportsbook set their win total at 9.5, with the under offering +121. My model sees potential value here but also notes the considerable uncertainty surrounding the team. The Dolphins have a high ceiling, especially with the potential for their defense to be elite and their offense to be explosive. However, the AFC East is one of the most unpredictable divisions.

The Jets, led by veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and the Bills, despite some important roster changes, both pose significant challenges. The Jets' defense is among the best in the league, and Rodgers has a track record of rising to the occasion. The Bills, meanwhile, have been a consistent playoff contender, and a slight easing of pressure this season could work in their favor. Miami's performance will heavily depend on the health and consistency of their key players, particularly on offense. Given these variables, it’s wise to avoid betting on Miami’s win total until there's more clarity on how the division shapes up.

5. Philadelphia Eagles - A Team in Transition

The Philadelphia Eagles have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past few seasons. After winning the NFC title two years ago, they experienced a significant decline, finishing last season at 11-6 but struggling in the latter half. The Eagles went just 1-6 in their final seven games and were particularly poor against the spread, sparking concerns about their consistency and internal dynamics.

Quarterback Jalen Hurts is a focal point of this uncertainty. He just wasn't the same in the second half of the season and the team was a disaster. The Eagles face a challenging schedule this season, and while they've made some notable offseason moves, including signing running back Saquon Barkley, there's skepticism about whether these will translate into on-field success. The team's defense, which allowed an alarming amount of points per game over the final eight contests, is another area of concern. The combination of a difficult schedule and lingering internal issues makes the Eagles a risky bet.

6. New Orleans Saints - Over 7.5 Wins (-116)

The New Orleans Saints are projected by my model to exceed the sportsbook's win total of 7.5, with a forecast closer to 8.6 wins. This positions them as a value play for the over at -116. The Saints possess a core of experienced veterans and a defense that, when healthy, ranks among the league's best. Their performance this season will largely hinge on the offense's ability to support this defense.

The Saints are in a favorable position within the NFC South, a division that appears relatively weak. The Falcons, while improving, have not established themselves as a dominant force, and the Buccaneers and Panthers are both in transitional phases. The Saints' consistency, coupled with a slightly easier schedule, gives them a realistic shot at securing eight or more wins. Key to this will be the play of the quarterback and the offensive line, both of which have shown flashes of promise. If they can provide stability and productivity, the Saints could easily outperform expectations.

Final Thoughts

As the 2024 NFL season approaches, these six value plays offer intriguing opportunities for bettors. The dynamics within each team and division present a mix of risks and potential rewards. From the uncertain future of the Bengals with Burrow's health to the high ceiling of the Dolphins and the volatile nature of the Eagles, each bet carries its own set of variables.

It's essential to keep a close eye on preseason developments, particularly regarding player injuries and team chemistry. The NFL is a league of constant change, and staying informed can provide a significant edge in betting. Good luck this season, and may your wagers be successful!