Statsational 2023 NFL Week 4 Power Rankings With Week 5 Projections
Each week, Statsational will go over his NFL Power Rankings to bring you up to speed on the numbers. Are your eyes deceiving you, or are the numbers wrong? Let us know in the Discord chat.
The ratings are based on each team vs. the average team in the league. You can use the rating differential of two teams and add the Home Field Advantage to get an idea of where the model likes the spread for that game. I would use this as a guide, not your final say on a game. We have a lot of models and tools for you to help with your handicapping, and this is one of them.In the early stages of our data collection, spanning just four weeks, some of the rankings may appear rather unconventional in certain areas. However, as we accumulate additional weeks of data, these rankings will gradually stabilize for the majority of teams. This initial glimpse into the rankings offers a valuable opportunity to identify teams that could potentially outperform or underperform their recorded records.
Key |
Power Rating - The higher the number, the better the team ranks. The differential in 2 teams can be compared to a pt spread on a neutral site. |
SOS - Strength Of Schedule |
Defense Rating - How many expected points are to be given up against an average team |
Offense Rating - How many points are expected to be scored against an average team |
After Week 4The current HFA is 1.35. I expect it to be 1.75 by year's end.
Rank | Teams | Power Rating | SOS | Defense Rating | Offense Rating | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Buffalo | 36.84 | 25.09 | 15.19 | 26.53 | 3 | 1 |
2 | Miami | 34.25 | 25.20 | 24.08 | 32.20 | 3 | 1 |
3 | San Francisco | 32.61 | 23.67 | 18.48 | 25.59 | 4 | 0 |
4 | Dallas | 32.59 | 24.06 | 17.57 | 24.66 | 3 | 1 |
5 | Baltimore | 32.44 | 25.77 | 16.98 | 23.92 | 3 | 1 |
6 | Detroit | 32.33 | 25.15 | 18.72 | 25.55 | 3 | 1 |
7 | Kansas City | 31.16 | 25.08 | 17.93 | 23.59 | 3 | 1 |
8 | LA Rams | 31.10 | 26.11 | 19.23 | 24.20 | 2 | 2 |
9 | Philadelphia | 29.19 | 24.89 | 22.57 | 26.25 | 4 | 0 |
10 | Houston | 28.32 | 26.63 | 20.59 | 23.41 | 2 | 2 |
11 | Cleveland | 27.68 | 23.93 | 17.32 | 20.13 | 2 | 2 |
12 | Jacksonville | 27.06 | 27.40 | 20.13 | 21.70 | 2 | 2 |
13 | Indianapolis | 27.01 | 29.73 | 23.13 | 24.64 | 2 | 2 |
14 | NY Jets | 26.34 | 31.73 | 18.63 | 20.10 | 1 | 3 |
15 | New England | 26.34 | 30.59 | 16.57 | 17.41 | 1 | 3 |
16 | Minnesota | 26.24 | 24.95 | 21.45 | 22.18 | 1 | 3 |
17 | LA Chargers | 26.03 | 25.44 | 24.02 | 24.55 | 2 | 2 |
18 | Tampa Bay | 25.27 | 22.88 | 18.37 | 18.14 | 3 | 1 |
19 | Seattle | 24.77 | 25.44 | 24.04 | 23.32 | 3 | 1 |
20 | Arizona | 24.55 | 26.48 | 23.52 | 22.56 | 1 | 3 |
21 | Tennessee | 23.22 | 23.82 | 20.92 | 18.65 | 2 | 2 |
22 | Atlanta | 23.10 | 25.06 | 18.95 | 16.55 | 2 | 2 |
23 | Washington | 21.72 | 25.54 | 22.03 | 18.25 | 2 | 2 |
24 | Green Bay | 21.55 | 22.88 | 24.98 | 21.04 | 2 | 2 |
25 | New Orleans | 21.50 | 22.34 | 21.29 | 17.29 | 2 | 2 |
26 | Cincinnati | 20.06 | 28.61 | 23.35 | 17.91 | 1 | 3 |
27 | Pittsburgh | 20.01 | 26.66 | 24.60 | 19.10 | 2 | 2 |
28 | Carolina | 19.31 | 23.90 | 23.83 | 17.64 | 0 | 4 |
29 | NY Giants | 19.01 | 28.63 | 22.15 | 15.66 | 1 | 3 |
30 | LasVegas | 18.04 | 23.61 | 20.85 | 12.77 | 1 | 3 |
31 | Chicago | 14.59 | 22.39 | 28.22 | 17.31 | 0 | 4 |
32 | Denver | 11.58 | 22.15 | 31.89 | 17.96 | 1 | 3 |
Offensive Rushing - Total yards above or below gained against the average their opponent gives up on the ground Offensive Passing - Total yards above or below gained against the average their opponent gives up in the air Defensive Rushing - Total yards above or below allowed against the average their opponent gains on the ground Defensive Passing - Total yards above or below allowed against the average their opponent gains in the air Off Passing - Def Passing - This combines the passing numbers for each team offensively and defensively. The higher the number, the better it is to target that team in game stacks.
Teams | Off Rushing | Off Passing | Def Rushing | Def Passing | Off Pass - Def Pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buffalo | 5.88 | 28.19 | -7.50 | 57.81 | -29.63 |
Miami | 51.81 | 96.56 | -12.00 | -4.19 | 100.75 |
San Francisco | 20.94 | 23.38 | 48.13 | -21.00 | 44.38 |
Dallas | 12.56 | 3.25 | -5.13 | 36.06 | -32.81 |
Baltimore | 24.19 | -5.00 | 12.44 | 37.56 | -42.56 |
Detroit | -4.31 | 38.75 | 51.25 | -12.31 | 51.06 |
Kansas City | 32.25 | 20.63 | 8.75 | 15.13 | 5.50 |
LA Rams | -5.31 | 46.44 | 0.81 | 22.44 | 24.00 |
Philadelphia | 57.88 | 5.94 | 29.63 | -28.31 | 34.25 |
Houston | -29.13 | 50.81 | 4.00 | -3.38 | 54.19 |
Cleveland | 29.00 | -47.56 | 3.81 | 77.94 | -125.50 |
Jacksonville | -15.44 | 22.81 | 22.25 | -13.25 | 36.06 |
Indianapolis | 12.06 | 9.88 | -16.13 | -18.00 | 27.88 |
NY Jets | -13.31 | -18.75 | -20.56 | 22.88 | -41.63 |
New England | -18.13 | 7.94 | 43.69 | 38.25 | -30.31 |
Minnesota | -16.06 | 47.00 | 5.63 | -9.19 | 56.19 |
LA Chargers | 10.19 | 36.69 | 4.88 | -48.00 | 84.69 |
Tampa Bay | -11.25 | -26.25 | 19.06 | 0.75 | -27.00 |
Seattle | -1.94 | 14.00 | 19.94 | -59.06 | 73.06 |
Arizona | 35.00 | -6.75 | -8.31 | -36.75 | 30.00 |
Tennessee | -7.13 | -30.19 | 36.06 | -40.75 | 10.56 |
Atlanta | 16.25 | -51.75 | -12.94 | 41.88 | -93.63 |
Washington | -15.88 | -38.31 | 13.06 | -2.06 | -36.25 |
Green Bay | -24.00 | -9.94 | -37.50 | 0.25 | -10.19 |
New Orleans | -26.56 | -12.00 | -11.31 | -6.75 | -5.25 |
Cincinnati | -25.38 | -4.75 | -28.75 | -4.50 | -0.25 |
Pittsburgh | 8.81 | -28.25 | -38.44 | -23.44 | -4.81 |
Carolina | -8.88 | -35.44 | -34.38 | 36.38 | -71.81 |
NY Giants | -5.31 | -64.19 | 2.81 | 9.56 | -73.75 |
LasVegas | -72.31 | -35.06 | -17.13 | 24.13 | -59.19 |
Chicago | -13.50 | -38.00 | -17.00 | -39.13 | 1.13 |
Denver | -28.50 | -0.06 | -59.13 | -50.94 | 50.88 |
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