Mitch's NCAAF Bet of the Day | October 14, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

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OVERALL RECORD: 19-15-1, +4.04u
RECAP: Well, last night was just the worst. Not only did I have Memphis +5, who later collapsed to move well out of that range, but I used a boost on Colorado to bring them down to -6.5 - that ALSO collapsed, and we’re here sitting down two units. Welp. I have three picks for the early slate, including this banger below.

October 14, 2023

PICK: California/Utah o43.5
Utah has been a fun roller-coaster this season, as they have one of the most dominant defenses in the country, but can’t really move the ball, including last week’s heartbreaker to Oregon State, where they were only able to muster up seven total points. 

That should change today, as they’re facing one of the most porous defenses in the league (welcome to the PAC-12, everyone) and we should see a better outing from their offensive output, while also being able to see Cal put on some fireworks. 

Utah has had two weeks to prepare for this game, and their offense should be humming against this secondary. Cal has one of the worst passing defenses in the league, and allows a whole lot of completions, as they play a more cushioned-style of defense. More importantly, though, is that the Utes are starting Bryson Barnes today, who had had far more experience and success than backup Nate Johnson had - and that means that, if the Utes can put up three touchdowns or so, we should be on our way to an over. 

On the other side, quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been a really bright spot for Cal, and will obviously be tested today when he faces a top-ten defense in college football in Utah. Yet, if you look at Mendoza’s production, he’s been able to feast off of defenses with his legs, something that Utah has shown as a liability; getting out of the pocket using his legs, Mendoza has the chance to produce similar numbers and a similar QB Rating (131) as last week.

But the story with this Cal offense is its rushing attack, ranking eleventh in the nation. While Cal has the fourth-best run defense in the nation, they also haven’t played a ton of teams who run the ball frequently; I could see running back Jadyn Ott having a great day today.

All we need is around three touchdowns from each team. And while each team has had its faults, the over here seems ripe, as Cal has shown that it can move the ball down the field, and Utah has had two weeks to prepare to move the ball. Let’s take the over.

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