Mitch's NCAAF Bet of the Day | November 4, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

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OVERALL RECORD: 27-24-1, +2.58u
RECAP: This past weekend, we went 2-3, including a plus-money play and a couple of parlay losses. Our NCAAF of the Day hasn’t hit in a bit, but nevertheless, we’re going to keep going for it - and today, I love one of our plays immensely. That’s why it’s my play of the day – I love being able to give you all the play I like the most, even for free.

PICK: Army/Air Force under 32.5
Y’all ever heard of service academy unders? Historically, these matchups are low-scoring and don’t breed a whole lot of offense; and despite the casual bettor saying, “hey, that looks low, let me take the over”... let me tell you why this may want to flip you to the other side. 

Here’s the craziest stat of the day: games played between two service academies since 2006 are hitting the under at an 82% clip. The under is 43-9 – that’s absolutely bonkers. In the last sixteen games between service academies, the over has only hit twice, one of them being the Army/Navy game last year where they went into overtime and screwed the under. Since 2021, these games have averaged a total of only 27 total points. 

This matchup specifically has hit the under in five of the last six seasons, and today’s offenses and defenses really make for a compelling matchup that could result in one side not even scoring. Air Force hasn’t lost yet this season, and are a compelling 5-3 against the spread. The over/under is at 4-4 for both of these teams, but head-to-head the under has gone 9-1 in its last ten matchups between these teams. Last season, we saw this game finish 13-7 – good for a solid 20 points scored. 

Neither of these teams pass at an efficient rate. In fact, Army is averaging just 100 yards per game through the air, and Air Force is averaging even less. These teams rely on their run games, and their run defenses, to keep games close. 

The reason that Air Force has been so successful this season is because of their run defense. They’re sixth in the nation in total yards per play, and fourth in the nation in yards per rushing attempt. The Army runs the ball at the fourth-highest mark in the league, and so expect plenty of running in this game. 

Air Force should win this game too, on the backs of their run game. They’re first in the nation in run percentage, and this Army defense can’t really stop the run; I think that this is going to be a blowout in favor of AF, and the total to still calmly stay under the 32.5 that we’re wielding here. Truthfully, Army might not score in this game. 

Take the under in this service academy game, simply because the numbers are on our side. 82% is a great clip, and it’s even higher when you consider the past few years; hit this under, and don’t let the low numbers scare you.

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