Mitch's NCAAF Bet of the Day | November 11, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

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OVERALL RECORD: 28-25-1, +2.53u
RECAP: Last weekend, we attacked the slate with only two plays total, and one of the two hit. Specifically, the Army/AF game surprised me a ton, as two-win Army absolutely took it to ranked Air Force, and there were a ton of points scored in the first half… and then none in the second half to cash our under. It was a wonderful feeling! Let’s get it today, as I have four PRO plays.

PICK: Michigan -4.5
This game will have all eyes on it in the wake of Harbaugh’s suspension for the rest of the regular season. But when we actually look at the numbers and the history of this matchup, there’s very little indication that it is going to be a close game, especially if we look at the coach on the other side. 

James Franklin, the coach of Penn State, is 1-11 all-time against AP Top-5 teams; he’s historically struggled against Michigan, and he’s a combined 3-16 against opponents in the top-ten during his tenure. That’s not ideal. 

And truthfully, while it’s incredibly corny, these Michigan players are going to be extremely fired up for this game. And the betting numbers are showing it: 58% of the total bets are on the Michigan side, making them a public favorite, and we see an even higher number when it comes to the actual amount of bets on that side as well; we’re seeing 67% of all money handles on the Michigan side, indicating a 9% difference in favor of Michigan. 

Penn State is a very good ATS team as well, but that’s where the QB play comes in; Drew Allar is simply not talented enough to hang with this Michigan defense. This Penn State passing attack is nearly one of the worst in all of college football, and they’re going to be forced to pass today, with Michigan ranking in the top ten in run defense. They’re actually the best defense in the league in yards per game allowed as well, and allows the lowest amount of completions per game in all of college football. 

And they have a quarterback. JJ McCarthy has had a breakout season, and is second in college football in completion percentage. They’re 14th in yards per play, and they’re facing the number one yards-per-play defense in the league; but what quarterback has challenged them, to be honest? They’ve never played an offensive unit led by someone as competent as McCarthy, and I expect him to find the holes in the defense all day. 

Let’s take a coachless Michigan against one of the more fraudulent teams in college football, and let’s grab the points, too. Michigan is the play.

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