Championship Game: TCU-Georgia
The Botton line article will lead us in making the right call on high-profile games. I will cover TNF, SNF, and MNF. I will also cover big baseball games, the NBA, CFB, and the NHL. Tonight we are covering the Championship game between TCU and Georgia.
As of Sunday night, the book is reporting that the majority of the liability is still on the TCU. Georgia made the sharp report the day after the line was posted and it's been sitting in the book's liability section since then. The book will be 100% behind Georgia with 65% of the handle on TCU and close to 900k in bets taken.
The truth is, based on the line movement and by game time, I'm sure the book will properly balance their action but we will have a better idea around 5 pm Monday night.
The book opened the line at +13.5 for TCU and got hit at +13.5, +13, and +12. For a brief moment, they even posted a +11. The bulk of the sharp money was on the +13.5 and +13. Then some sharp money came on Georgia at -11 and -12 hence why TCU is not on the sharp report in the sharp money section. Something similar applies to the total. The over 61 was steamed to 63 but some sharp money came on the under once it reached 63.
It was hard not to watch the Georgia game on new years eve as we were having dinner. Even my youngest was glued to the tv. We were all convinced the Bulldogs were out. That comeback was unbelievable and my kid was sad when it came down to the final FG. She was 100% sure he was going to make it. HE DIDN'T!!! Now she wants to stay up and watch the game on Monday but I'll have to convince her mom. The consensus was that TCU had what it took to cover the number however to win straight up was less probable and because of that win now everyone rallied behind TCU and took the points.
The Bottom line: TCU has been a covering machine this year and the bulk of the sharp money is supporting them. Georgia has the experience and the weapons. Both have important injuries to their squads however Georgia is deeper with depth. Looking at all the drives in the Fiesta Bowl, Michigan had a terrible 1st half and I doubt Georgia will do the same. They will control this game. I need to side with the more experienced and talented team in this game and not jump on the TCU hype. I will be betting the game closer to kick off but I am looking for specific numbers. I'm ok with a Georgia 1st Q bet at -3 but prefer -6.5 or better for a 1st half bet. I would also like to see this line drop to -12 so I can tease them down to -6 and over 57.5 however getting the total at 55 or better would be preferred.
Good luck and enjoy the game!Join Discord and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games
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