Jake's South Region Bracket

"This is March."- Jon Rothstein. Welcome to the most fantastic three weeks of the year, and I have you covered. In my previous articles, I finished second out of twenty-five in my conference tournament pool, and this month has been an excellent month for me. There are three more weeks, and let's try to capitalize on the most intriguing tournament in years! Here is my South Region Bracket:

My winner: Arizona

Winner of the PAC-12 with a crazy finish against UCLA, I feel Arizona has a relatively easy path to the Final Four. Princeton in the first Round could cause some trouble, but Arizona will lock in and avoid the first-round upset. In the second Round, I have them playing Missouri, and Arizona's offense matches Missouri's offense, but Arizona's defense can match Missouri's offense. In the Sweet 16, I have Arizona playing Creighton. Creighton has a balanced offense and defense, but at a certain point, the offense does win games, and Arizona's offense outweighs Creighton's defense. In the Elite 8, I have them playing SDSU, but even if it is Alabama, the offense wins games in March. Arizona has shooters, and they have size. Arizona's assist-to-turnover ratio is around 1.5x, which means for every three assists on a basket, there are little less than two turnovers. The AtTO is essential because it shows the offenses' efficiency. The number varies but approximately 65% of baskets are assisted and have a very good positive AtTO benefit as games come down the wire. Arizona also hit the three ball at 40%, according to Haslametric, the highest three-point percentage in Haslametric's top 25.

My highlight game of the Round of 64:

Maryland vs. West Virginia: The committee has made the tournament's first game one of the best games of the Round of 64. This game is a toss-up, and my model has predicted the game to be a PK. Both teams have elite offenses, and both teams can play great defense. The fact that both teams are in the 8/9 game with how well their metrics are is surprising, but both have had bad losses throughout the year. Both have had juggernaut seasons playing respectively in the Big 12 and the Big 10. History repeats itself, and the Big 10 always fails to rise to the occasion each year in the tournament. The reason for this is that in the Big 10, there is such an effect of defense, so as long the team can score at least 65, there is a good chance they win the regular season. With Big 12's high-power offense and Bob Huggins's coaching style, Maryland can be disadvantaged throughout. However, Maryland has proven to win big games this year and can knock down the three-ball. The game will be a back-and-forth affair, but I am picking the Mountaineers to reign victorious and move on to the Round of 32.

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