Jake's College Basketball Picks 3/2

Yesterday, I started my favorite month of the year with only one bet, Notre Dame ML. I did not write an article for it, but if you follow Instagram, you will receive this Sharp play. Besides that, I was swamped last night with two exams this morning, but it feels good being 1-0 in the most fun month of the year for betting!

Today there are some afternoon games and an incredible evening slate to close out a great year of college basketball.

Afternoon:

Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa: A solid mid-major game in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament that always seems competitive each year. UNI and Illinois State were bottoms of the MVC this year, making them play the early game on the first day of the conference tournament. However, UNI went 2-0 against ISU this year and won respectively in both their matchups. UNI also competed with the top teams in the MVC, whereas ISU did not come to play in those games. To conclude UNI's regular season, they lost to Belmont at home by 8, but the game was much closer than 8. UNI was down by two at the half, the whole second half was back and forth, and Belmont happened to pull away at the end. Although losing to end the regular season is not the best way to end, it ultimately was positive because it gives confidence that they could compete with the top teams in the MVC. Both teams have three wins against teams that are ranked between 100-150, according to Haslametrics. However, UNI ranks better against teams between 150-250 than Illinois State. UNI is 52 places higher on the Kenpom than ISU, and defensive efficiency is significantly better. To win in March, defense wins.

My pick is UNI -3.5

I am also betting on South Alabama -4.5. Not much to say here. I have been following them the whole year, and they have some huge wins and know how to cover games. They are ranked #98 in the Kenpom and will make noise in the SBC.

Tonight:

Michigan vs. Illinois: Michigan is currently second in the Big Ten but is considered a bubble team to the committee. Michigan's last two games of the regular season are at Illinois and Indiana. This Michigan team this year is very similar to what Indiana was the previous year. They have had some big wins and terrible losses. Going into the Big Ten tournament, they need to win one of their two next games and make noise in the Big Ten Tournament next week to solidify a chance at the Big Dance. Last year, IU was in the same position, upset Michigan and Illinois, then lost to Iowa on a miracle buzzer-beater. Michigan has the potential to make noise, and they are riding a hot hand right now with an insane ending on Sunday vs. Wisconsin. Michigan is heating up at the right time. A terrible loss on the road at OSU on Sunday for Illinois continues to show inconsistencies. I think for Illinois, if they play consistently and play without fouling, they will be fine. One area they lack is size, and Hunter Dickinson will take over tonight and prove that Michigan is a tournament team.

I will be taking Michigan ML.

Other games tonight:
Rutgers vs. Minnesota: Minnesota +8.5
UCF vs. Temple: Temple ML
Wichita State vs. Houston: Wichita State +17.5
Arizona vs. USC: Arizona -1.5

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