Jake's College Basketball Picks 2/21

And we are back! Unfortunately, I went 2-2 yesterday, ending in the TCU-Kansas game as Kansas pulled away in the final minute. That game was indeed a pk game and could have gone both ways. Unfortunate calls and poor shooting down the stretch ultimately caused TCU to lose. In Minnesota vs. Illinois game, Illinois got too comfortable toward the end and left the door wide open for Minnesota to back door cover.

Today is a new opportunity to get hot, with an incredible slate of games. Here are my picks for today:

#17 Indiana vs. Michigan State:
This is the first game in Michigan State since the tragic shooting last week. Emotions will be high as Michigan State students are still grieving over the loss of three of their classmates the previous week. Michigan State is coming off a 12-point loss to their in-state rival in Michigan and will look to bounce back at an energetic Breslin Center. Michigan State has been a middle-of-the-pack team all year, and whenever they had a glimpse of hope, they fell back down immediately. In Big Ten play, they have wins over Rutgers, Maryland, and Iowa and a point-one loss to Purdue. When they came to Bloomington in January, they were in control for most of the first half, and the Hoosiers opened it up in the second half. The Spartans have someone in Joey Hauser who could become the next Christian Laettner. Not to the extent Laettner was, but Joey Hauser is one of the most fundamentally sound players in college basketball who is extremely gritty on the defensive end. He leads the Spartans in scoring and rebounds. Hauser, A.J. Hoggard, Malik Hall, and Jaden Aikins show a high-power offense that can light up a team.

However, the Indiana Hoosiers are coming off a massive win at home over Illinois and trying to cement themselves at the top of the Big Ten. One area the Hoosiers have been struggling with is winning outside Assembly Hall. Last week, they got a big one at Michigan but lost to Northwestern on the road on a buzzer-beater. Disregard the buzzer-beater; the Hoosiers made a massive comeback in that game, coming back from 19 down in the second half and almost winning it at the end. The following two road games against MSU and Purdue for Indiana will prove if they will compete for a national championship. One positive for IU is that their assist-to-turnover ratio vs. defensive efficiency is positive. This means their offensive and defensive efficiency is net positive, which will provide success in March. IU is ranked 19 on the Kenpom, and MSU is ranked 33 on Kenpom.

• My betting model predicts Indiana to win by .724

  • Although the model considers home court advantage, the model does not account for the increased emotions that will be displayed tonight because of the circumstances in East Lansing.

I will be fading my model tonight. I will take Michigan State Moneyline.

Other games I am betting on tonight:
#9 Baylor vs. #14 Kansas State: Kansas State ML
#11 Tennessee vs. #25 Texas A&M: Tennessee ML
#13 Miami vs. Virginia Tech: Miami ML
#23 Iowa State vs. #8 Texas: Iowas State +7.5

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