Jake's College Basketball Picks 1/4/23

Although I went 1-2 yesterday, I am still 6-3 in the New Year. A poor second half from St. John's was a huge letdown. A pick that has almost seemed to be free money all year is St. John's first-half Moneyline. Let's move on to today and try for 3-0 again!

Featured Game, Missouri vs. Arkansas: Missouri has been a surprise to many this year, starting the season un-ranked and now the twentieth team in the country. Missouri has two quality wins over Illinois and Kentucky, where they showed they were the better throughout by beating both of them by 10+ points. However, they lost by twenty-eight in a home against Kansas, where they were only three-point underdogs. Led by D'Moi Hodge and Kobe Brown, one reason for Missouri's success has been their three-point ball. Hodge and Brown are shooting over 40% from three, averaging around 16 points. According to Kenpom, the Tigers have the fourth most efficient offense in the nation, yet, a defensive efficiency that barely makes the top 150. 

Arkansas has been solid this year as well. They played in the highly competitive Maui Jim Invitational, beating a solid San Diego State squad yet losing to Creighton in a one-score game. A ten-point win over Oklahoma is also added to a good resume. They are 0-1 in SEC play with a loss to LSU, but it is time to put respect on LSU's name as they lost to Kentucky last night in a one-possession game. Arkansas may have one of the most complete starting fives in the nation with a great experience. Ricky Council, Anthony Black, and Davonte Davis have experience with Council and Davis losing a close one to Duke in last year's Elite 8. Arkansas has the 34th-best offense yet a defense that is ranked number in the nation. One reason for their success is that they play stellar defense.

Missouri is 8-5 ATS this year, while Arkansas is 7-5-1. With Arkansas coming off a tough loss and Missouri coming off a huge win, this is a trap game for Missouri. Missouri's high-powered offense matches up with Arkansas' stellar defense. A quote that has been preached my whole life is, "offense wins games, defense wins championships." For Arkansas to win, they need to be all over Missouri. If Missouri figures out the defense, it will be a long day for the Razorbacks.
My pick is Arkansas -7.5.

Other games to highlight today:

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma: It has a trap game written all over for Iowa State. A massive win against Baylor but with tough losses to Iowa and UConn. Oklahoma has two bad beats by single digits to Texas and Villanova while having quality wins over Seton Hall, Ole Miss, and Florida. Oklahoma has a very efficient offense, ranked 28 in the Kenpom. Oklahoma proves tonight that they are a contender in the Big 12.
My pick is Oklahoma -3.

Penn State vs. Michigan: Penn State and Michigan have both been solid this year. Michigan has had three bad losses (4 points or less) to Kentucky, UVA, and UNC. Michigan dominated in their last outing against Maryland. I expect the same from them tonight in Crisler Center.
My pick is Michigan -4.

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