Villanova vs. UConn Write-Up (12/28/22)

Villanova vs. UConn: A quality Big East matchup between the undefeated UConn Huskies and a Villanova squad that has turned the corner. Villanova’s last outing against St. Johns was enough evidence to show that Villanova is back. They started slow, which caused worry, but Villanova ended the first half on a seventeen-to-two run and kept that same momentum going into the second half. Eric Dixon played like the big man Villanova needed against Joel Soriano, and Caleb Daniels controlled Nova’s offense. It was not high-scoring, but Villanova dominated and won by fifteen, easily covering the 5.5-point spread.

On the other hand, UConn is the number two team in the land and the best team in the country against the spread. They are 11-1 ATS. They also have the number two offensive and defensive efficiencies in the country, according to Haslametrics. UConn is legit, but in their last going, an abysmal Georgetown team held their own through the first thirty-five minutes before UConn pulled away and won by eleven. The line of that game opened at UConn at -24 and eventually went down to around -22. 

One common theme with Big East basketball is that they are low scoring and ultimately very close. The past two meetings between UConn and Villanova were decided by one possession. UConn is the better team, but 12.5 points is a lot of points, especially in Big East play. Both teams are coming off lengthy breaks following Christmas, so I expect the first few minutes to be slow and a defensive matchup.
My pick in this game is Villanova +12.5, Under 137.5.