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NBA Bet of the Day | LOADED Friday Slate | November 17, 2023

Mitch S
Mitch S
In this column, Mitch goes through the BEST BET he's seeing in the NBA today.

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 40-29, +8.26u
Finally, we’ve reached the highest units gained that we’ve hit so far this season, and it’s on the back of last night’s victory in Golden State, where we got OKC EARLY on as -1.5 favorites and they absolutely crushed it. Warriors bettors: this team STINKS at home. Don’t fall for it! Anyways, we will have a few picks today in my PRO channel in our Discord (linked below), but I’ll give you the biggest advantage I have today.

November 17, 2023

Going against the defending champs feels like David & Goliath, but this Pelicans team is no David - they’re a force to be reckoned with in the West. Let’s talk about this game, and then get into the pick. 

This is the largest discrepancy I’ve ever seen from our Money Handles tool, a tool that PRO Subscribers use to evaluate the amount of bets on a game, and compare it to the amount of money placed on a game. Right now, as I’m writing this, the New Orleans Pelicans have 8% of the bets placed - people are leaning HEAVILY into the Nuggets to win tonight. Yet, the Pels Spread has 85% of the handle on this game - that’s a difference of 77% on our tool. That’s absolutely nuts. I have to take it, and you should, too. 

Denver has been undefeated at home, absolutely dominating within the walls of Ball Arena, but they’ve been average away from home so far this season. They are 2-2 on the road, and when they win, their average margin of victory is at 3.3. They are projected in our Sharp App AI right at this line of 4.5. 

The Pelicans have a sneaky good defensive unit, as well. They’re third in the league in limiting the three-point shot this season, and they’re facing a poor three-point shooting team in the Nuggets. The real test is going to be stopping Denver’s efficient offense, which shoots at the highest percentage in the league. 

But the Pels play some series defense at home, ranking in the top ten on FG% and they limit first-half scoring really consistently at home. This Denver offense is only averaging 107 points per game on the road, while New Orleans is averaging 113 points per game at home, scoring-wise. 

And it’s on the backs of guys like Brandon Ingram, who is averaging 23/5/5 over his last six games, and Zion Williamson, who is putting up 21/6/4 over his last six. Jokic is obviously a force, and he’s the best scorer in the league right now - but he will need some help, and I believe (and our Money Handles tool believes) that the Pels can keep this game close. 

This game should be within four points, and might even act as an early-season upset for the league’s most dominant team. Let’s take the Pels with the points tonight.

PICK: New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

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Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!


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