NBA Bet of the Day | February 15, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 156-105-3, +39.60u
RECAP: It’s the day after the day of love, and I’m sending my love the way of the Brooklyn Nets, who covered just BARELY to win by 8 when we needed them to lose by less than nine. It helped that Porzingis got hurt before the game, but we’ll take it. We have hit five straight NBA of the Days, our biggest streak of the NBA season, and we’re at the highest total this season. Let’s make it six in a row going into the All-Star Break. 

February 15, 2024

We again have a great play tonight as we’re heading to Portland to try and get a winner on the total as they host the mighty Minnesota Timberwolves, who are trying to keep hold of the number one seed heading into the All-Star Break. Our Money Handles and Sharp AI are in love with this play, and that means that we are, too. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Portland Trail Blazers meet for the third time this year, in which Minnesota has absolutely dominated this series as of late. In both meetings so far this season, they’ve covered the spread (in their first game the spread was sixteen!), but we’re looking specifically at the total in this game. 
Our Money Handles tool, which pits the money on the game against the total amount of bets per side, loves the under in this game. We have 32% of the total bets placed on this game within the realm of the under, while 66% of the money placed on this game is on the side of the under. That means that the public isn’t on it, but most of the money is; that’s a difference of 34%. 

We’re trying to hit six straight games on the NBA of the Day, and that means that we need to look closely at the AI if we’re making a play. This AI has the game pegged at 215.5 points as a projection, giving us half a point of wiggle room on the night, and I anticipate the line to continue to move in the downward direction as we move into the night; all day, this number has been moving lower and lower after an initial jump. 

And when we look at our trends, there’s support here, too. As an underdog at home, the Blazers are among the worst in the league at overs; they’re 12-8 when it comes to unders in this exact scenario, hitting the total consistently under by five points. 

And we have real blowout material tonight, as the Blazers are projected to lose by nine  or more on the line. As the overall favorite, Minnesota usually loses the over by two points on average as well. That means primetime for this pick. 
Minnesota should clobber, leading to a blowout victory and a prime opportunity for the under. Portland just played the Timberwolves and hit the over last game, so let’s look for the under to hit tonight. 

PICK: Minnesota / Portland under 216

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!