NBA Bet of the Day | February 11, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 154-104-3, +37.87u
RECAP: Again we nail our NBA of the Day to hit three straight days of winning in the NBA, which can be very hard to do. We cashed our freebie and our PRO picks without a sweat in either game, and we’ve officially reached our highest unit total of the season, at nearly 38 units of profit over the course of the season. I love the NBA with all of my heart, and it feels good to profit heavily on the league that can be so wishy-washy.

February 11, 2024

Wait, Mitch, you’re betting on the NBA on the day of the biggest game of the NFL season? Hell yes I am. And I absolutely love this play, our handles love this play, and it’ll be nice to make some coin before they kick off in Las Vegas. Let’s dive in. 

We’ve got two games to choose from today, as the Celtics head to Miami and the Kings head to OKC to take on the Thunder. In this limited slate, there’s only one clear game that stands out, and it’s the early game that we’re going to bet on today.

While the Celtics are generally considered as the best team in the league, they’ve been floundering a little bit here and there among the last ten games. Miami is a consistent unders team, and the C’s are a consistent over team - which gives a weird premise as we look at the total here. 

The total opened at 226.5 and has been slowly dropping all day long, and that’s where we’re going to land today. At some books, it’s already at a low 224.5 – but we can still get it at 226, and that’s the best we can grab. I like it all the way down to 224.5. 

Our Money Handles are the best place to see the advantage here, as we’re seeing only 37% of the bets placed on the under in this game, but a majority of the money - 62% - are on the under. That’s a difference of 25% and it matches up perfectly with our criteria. Sharp AI has this game at a little higher, at 226.5 - but I’m still comfortable playing it at 226, personally. 

Both of these teams have been unders-takers throughout the last ten games, and it shows in their defensive efforts. The Heat are only allowing 102 points per game over their last five games, and are stellar at home. The Celtics are also improved over their last five, allowing 115 points per game over their last five. That’s a recipe for unders, and even though the Celtics have the firepower, this Miami defense is just too stellar. 

Let’s take the under in this game, and take our money into the Super Bowl this afternoon. Hammer the under, and let’s stay hot.

PICK: Boston / Miami under 226

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