NBA Bet of the Day | December 22, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 84-58-1, +17.41u
RECAP: We’re on a nice little win streak, hitting each of our last four article bets, and overall have been rolling to close out December. Last night, we got an early line on the Bulls that rose to -6.5, but that number cleared really easily, no matter what line you got it at. We’re seeing a lot of parity in the NBA right now, and it makes today’s free bet of the day definitely not a public one. Let’s dive into it.

December 22, 2023

The Wizards are heading allllllll the way across the country to take on the Golden State Warriors at home, as the Wizards are coming off of a brutal stretch in which they’ve only won two games over their last ten. The Warriors are 5-5 over their last ten, and both teams are 6-4 ATS over that same stretch. But, our Sharp Money Handles Tool has found a sneaky bet in this game that might scare a lot of you off. 

According to the Money Handles tool, the public holds nearly 80% of the bets placed on the spread and favors the Warriors at home. That means that the money should be all over the Warriors, right? That’s where the scary part comes in. 

The Washington Wizards, winners of 2 over their last million, have 69% of the money percentage, according to the Sharp App, yet only hold 21% of the total bets placed on this game. That’s a percentage of 48%, among the highest we’ve seen this season. There’s some serious potential sharp money on this side of the ball. 

And Sharp AI agrees wholeheartedly, giving the Warriors -9.5 to play with, while the line is set right now at -12.5. We’ve got three points to play with as we place this bet, and I anticipate the lines to creep even closer as we get closer to game time, although it hasn’t moved much throughout the day. 

We have the difference in our handles, and we have Sharp Projections on our side, but what about the narrative? Well, the Wizards are 11-6 ATS this season as the road underdog, and they have the ninth-best scoring on the road this season. They have a top-ten road offense in the league, and the Warriors rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed at home.

The Dubs’ home offense is 28th in FG percentage, and 20th in scoring in the league. They can rebound offensively pretty well at home, but that’s also factoring in the player-that-shall-not-be-named playing, which obviously won’t be happening in this game. 

I’m not saying that this is an upset spot, because I do think that the Warriors still win this game. But truthfully, the Wizards can score with the best of them, and we have a lot of data on our side. Let’s take the Wizards to not lose by more than twelve, eh?

PICK: Washington Wizards +12.5

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