NBA Bet of the Day | Best Trend in the NBA? | December 5, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 61-42, +12.91u
RECAP: We’ve gone 1-2 since our last edition of the NBA Free Bet of the Day, and it’s been a rocky road to start December. The In-Season Tournament gave us hell over the past few nights, and tonight, we have a battle matchup late into the night between the Suns and the Lakers. Let’s see if we can pinpoint a winner tonight. 

December 5, 2023

A line that was absolutely going bonkers early this morning was the total in Los Angeles, as the Lakers are set to take on the Phoenix Suns in a matchup that will send one of these teams to the final four of the NBA In-Season Tournament, which has been wildly successful, in my opinion. 

The line opened at 224.5, and shot up to 227.5 overnight. This means that we should see a lot of bets on the over, right? The line shot up, right? Wrong. 

The Suns are overs machines, while the Lakers are more in the middle compared to the rest of the league when it comes to the total. But the thing about this matchup is how close it’s projected to be; the Lakers are one of the most dominant home teams in the entire league, going 8-2 at this point in Los Angeles. The Suns, on the other hand, are one of the best AWAY teams in the league, going 7-3 away from home - which explains the tight line sitting around LA being favored by about a point. 

Lebron James is questionable right now, but there’s just no way he misses this game. And while he’s a liability on defense most of the time, when he plays hard, he can still be an active perimeter defender. The Suns, on the other hand, are a different defensive beast on the road - despite being huge Overs machines, they’re actually only 5-5 on the O/U away from home, a significant difference from what they’re in Phoenix. Something about the hotel water, maybe. 

And at home, the Lakers struggle to score, and are stout defensively. We’re seeing Sharp Money come in on the under in this game, and it makes a lot of sense - the Lakers are 3-7 on the Over at home. This is a recipe for the trends, my friends. 

The trends tell us to take the under in this game because of the trends set forth by these two teams. Away from home, the Suns are 22nd in FG percentage, and the Lakers rank as the fourth-best defense at home. Meanwhile, if we flip it, the Suns defense is stellar on the road, ranking 11th in the league in FG percentage and allowing under league-average points scored. This Lakers team struggles to score at home, mostly because they put so much emphasis on their home defense. 

Take the under in tonight’s tournament game, because both of these teams will be gunning for the win - and that means defensive focus. Unders, baby.

PICK: Lakers/Suns under 227.5

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