NBA Bet of the Day | 20-4 Run! | November 24, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 48-31, +13.42u
RECAP: Once again, we are absolutely screwed out of a sweep in the NBA. The Bucks were dead to rights and heaved a last-second three to take the win from us, but our other three PRO plays hit easily, making us 3-1 on the day and up to a season-high 13 units. Let’s see if we can keep it up with another great slate.

November 23, 2023

Don’t look now, and don’t drink the Kool-Aid too quickly, but the New York Knicks and Miami Heat might actually be good this season during the regular season - and there’s very little evidence to say that these two teams are going to slow down. But one of them has to win today. 

The Miami Heat are an against-the-spread middling team, going 7-8 to begin the year. They are in most games, but have had their fair share of letdowns. The Knicks, on the other hand, have been one of the best ATS teams in the league this season, going 8-4-2 so far through fourteen games. The Knicks come in at 8-6 overall, while the Heat have tallied 10 wins already on the season.

This game has heavy numbers on the under, and there’s sharp money there, too - which means that this is going to be a defensive, low-scoring affair. To me, which team can put up the most points when they need to? Who has more overall scorers? That’s who is going to win this game. 

The Knicks allow the third-least amount of points in the league, while the Heat allow the sixth-least amount of points. Both of these teams are hovering around 110 points per game scored, and the Knicks only allow 105 points per game. These teams struggle to score, but their defense more than makes up for it. 

And that’s where we head to the money handles tool and the Sharp Report, because these tools know better than any metric. We’re seeing a massive amount of money on the Knicks, with 91% of all money on the Knicks. Yet, only 40% of all total bets are on them, and that makes for a huge difference of 51% - these are the numbers we look for, people. I don’t think that the Knicks are going to blow out the Heat in any way, but if we’re seeing these kinds of numbers at -5 (PointsBet) or -5.5 (everywhere else), then that means that the line is only going to climb.

We’re also seeing Sharp Money on the Knicks this morning, and Miami is in the “book liability” section. This game is matching up too well for a winner - but we’re going to take it, anyways. Hammer the Knicks -5/-5.5 before the line continues to climb.

PICK: New York Knicks -5

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