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NBA Bet of the Day | March 22, 2024

Mitch S
Mitch S
In this column, Mitch goes through the BEST BET he's seeing in the NBA today.

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 194-129-3, +49.77u
RECAP: Two days ago we were able to cash our free bet of the day, but the volume we played actually came back to bite us overall, going 2-3 on the day for a loss of a unit and some change. We’re back under fifty units on the year, but we have another slate tonight that can help us rebound, especially if we get back to our normal play volume. I don’t mind splurging every once in a while on plays, and two nights ago, it didn’t work out. On to today! 

March 22nd, 2024

This game is between two bottom-feeders who are looking for their big break to propel them into the upcoming season; or, are they looking to tank so they get a better draft pick? Who’s to say? Nevertheless, the Grizzlies are traveling south to take on the San Antonio Spurs and Wemby. 

GG Jackson and the Grizzlies are one of the most inefficient and ineffective teams in the league, and they’re facing off against another inefficient and ineffective team. However, the Grizzlies have won ten straight games against the Spurs, and the under finally hit in their most recent game against each other, after five straight overs. But this matchup is streaky, because before their overs streak against each other, they had hit four straight unders; this is set to be the second straight under. 

While we don’t have any money handles data, we do have Sharp Report data. According to the final Sharp Report of the day, we have four sharps on this play, making it a Mega Sharp Play, which has been extremely profitable in the NBA this season. And I can’t blame the sharps for hammering this side; it’s moved from 219 all the way down to 216.5 throughout the day. And while this is a huge difference in points, the side is usually the winner regardless; I wouldn’t worry too much about the possibility of the game ending at 217 or 218. 

Here’s a crazy stat: one of the referees, Aaron Smith, is undefeated (8-0) when it comes to unders when the total is between 210-219.5. That’s a really interesting statistic, and while I don’t base my decisions based on referees, I do think that it is a very interesting side to play as we look to cash another play. 

The Spurs have rarely hit the over when they’re the favorite at all this season, and are 2-4 when they’re a favorite this season. And while the Grizzlies have been profitable as the away team on overs, I just don’t see either team being proficient at scoring the basketball tonight; take the under. 

PICK: Memphis/San Antonio under 216.5

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