NBA Bet of the Day | March 2, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 168-115-3, +40.32
RECAP: Over the past two days, we’ve gone 4-0 and then 2-0 in total, and it’s because of the streakiness of our plays. We want to be more stable, and while I love 4-0 days, my goal is to be consistently positive, not just up and down like a roller coaster. That being said, we’re up 40 units on the season and we’re 10-3 in our last 13 freebies. Let’s look for it to continue tonight! 
 
March 2nd, 2024

The Brooklyn Nets might be up there with the teams I’ve bet on the most this season, and it’s for good reason, as they’ve shown that there is profit to be made. Today, they take on the Atlanta Hawks at home, in a game between two teams that are desperately fighting for wins to sneak into the Play-In Tournament. 

I’m running out of players to feature in the image on the thumbnail, and it’s for good reason; the Nets have cashed in for us all season long. Today, we’re looking at their moneyline, where the line across most books is a toss-up between Atlanta and Brooklyn. Truthfully, they’ve shown that they can win at home, and our money handles show it as well; as of writing this, we can get them on the ML at +100. We’re seeing 33% of the bets on this game on the home team, while 71% of the total money placed on this game is on the side of the Nets. That’s a difference of 38%, and that’s right on that sweet spot that we’re looking for. 

Plus, we have lots of things on our side. Coach Anthony’s NBA Model shows that the Nets should be favored by three, so we’re getting three points of wiggle room on his model; our Sharp AI shows that the Nets should be favored by one, and at most books, they’re underdogs. Plus, they just beat Atlanta two days ago by twenty; they clearly have their number. 

As the home team, they win 57% of the time; heck, as a home favorite (which is really close in this scenario), they win 76% of the time this season. Those two trends are so favorable when we’re talking about tailing an advantage. As the away team, the Hawks, on average, lose by a total of five points per game, and the Nets have OWNED this Atlanta team over their last ten matchups, winning 70% of the time. 

Over their last five games, the Nets have a top-five defense, and are the number one team at limiting assists in the league. Let’s rely on their defense to get the job done today, and let’s take the home team to win this one and go back-to-back. 

PICK: Brooklyn Nets ML

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