NBA Bet of the Day | February 27, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 161-111-3, +37.98u
RECAP: We nailed our free pick right on the head yesterday, and it led us to gain over .7 units on the day, which (when you’re feeling down) we’ll absolutely take. The Nets took over the game by halftime and never really looked back; I’m not sure why the game was viewed so close from Vegas’ perspective. Anyways, we continue on our trek for 50 units on the season! 
 
February 27, 2024

It’s my birthday today, and that means that hopefully we’ll have good luck tonight, right? We may need it, because we’re going to try and cash in on a game that has a really tight line, and not a lot of wiggle room - which is why we’re going to roll on the moneyline. 

The Atlanta Hawks are hosting the Utah Jazz, and it’s a tale of two teams who have gone in different directions as of late. Especially considering the horrible start Atlanta had, they’re slowly making a climb to solidify themselves into the playoff race in the East, while the Jazz are three games out of the playoffs. We’re seeing early Sharp money on the Atlanta Hawks, and let’s break down why I believe they’ll take this game at home today, even if both teams are equally matched. 

The Sharp App Money Handles tool is one of the premier tools in the world at determining betting angles, and it’s led us to almost 40 units this season. Today, the Hawks on the spread own 39% of the betting handle and over 90% of the total bets, giving them a difference of 52%. Even though it’s early, it’s important to remember that these plays are identified by the sharps early on; so it makes sense that we’re seeing this. 

And the trends absolutely back it up. We’re going to lean on the ML for this game (at about -120 right now), and the line is only going to increase as the day goes on. The Jazz are one of the worst away teams in the league, as the No Name Saloon is their home and they defend it well; but on the road, they’re 9-20 straight up, and when they’re considered an underdog (which they will for this game), they’re only winning 36% of games. They cannot win in games that they’re projected to lose. 

The side of the Hawks is a little murkier, but it’s simply because they are the worst ATS team in the league. So let’s not look at those numbers, and look at their numbers straight-up; this season when they’re favored, they’re 18-14; on their home court, as the favorite, they win 54% of the time. That’s not too shabby for a team that is absolutely chaotic when it comes to winning and losing this season. 

Let’s take the Hawks on a rested squad, and look for Dejounte Murray and Sadiq Bey to get the job done at home against a team that they really should beat. 

PICK: Atlanta Hawks ML

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