NBA Bet of the Day | February 22, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 156-105-3, +39.60u
RECAP: Whew, that was quite a trip away from the NBA. The All-Star game was a joke, the dunk contest was a joke, and everyone is probably going to start off slow to begin the year. Does that mean unders? Does that mean dogs? We’ll just have to see – but truth be told, I’m ready to demolish this NBA slate tonight, and for the rest of the year. Let’s get it, friends! 
 
February 22, 2024

These are two of my least favorite teams in the league, and they’re facing off in a favorable matchup for the total that I’m looking at hammering. Let’s break down the two teams and which side we’re going to lean heavily into. 

The Nets are heading to Toronto to take on the Raptors in the first game post-break, and these are two teams that are very close on paper (the spread is one point in favor of the home team), and that makes it often tough to really pinpoint on the spread. That’s why we’re going to shift towards the total in this game, and look at the trends to guide us. 

When we look at the money handles tool in the Sharp App, we’re seeing a significant difference on the under in this game. The total is set at 231.5, and we have 40% of the betting handle on this bet; but when we look at the money, we’re seeing 74% of the money on this game hitting the under; that’s a difference of 34%, and is a prime opportunity to hit the under. 

Our trends all lean in this direction as well. As the home team, the under is 17-10 this season when the Raptors are in Toronto, and it averages this under by about four points; we’ve got some wiggle room from the home team. But the trends also align for the away team as well. 

While the Nets are historically hitting the over at high percentages, there are a couple specific scenarios where the under is especially ripe, and we’re seeing it today. The Nets hit the under in 55% of games where they’re the away underdog, and 54% when they’re the away team altogether. 

Plus, these teams are coming back from a long break, and there’s no way that they’re going to be turned all the way up and ready to go. Seriously. I have no doubt in my mind that this game is probably going to go under, and the money handles tool has us looking in that direction as well. Let’s take the under between these two non-playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. 

PICK: Brooklyn/Toronto under 231.5

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