Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (03/28/23)

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 3/25/23 RECAP: Atlanta kept Memphis’ scoring down, making my TOTD 0-1 – but the rest of my picks held it down for me this week. Jarrett Allen went WAY over his rebounding O/U, and Klay (all love) struggled this weekend, as I predicted, making these picks 2-0. New Orleans went 1-1 in their O/U, while Orlando continued their recent streak of dominance, beating Brookly on Saturday (1-0). Finally, I misstep when I talked about Hayward’s assists - should have taken the points instead, going 0-1 by one assist. This weekend brought us to 4-3, officially finishing the month of March at 36-27, for about 9U of profit. Let’s be even better this month!

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY: Things are CLICKING in Clam Chowder Country, as the Boston Celtics have won three straight and five out of their last six. Their win margin in their past three games is over 25 POINTS and they have been blowing out teams. Tonight, the line is hovering around 11.5 - meaning that the books are expecting a blowout. Blowouts mean Unders, people, and I think that this team is clicking defensively at just the right time. They’ve got Washington tonight (where we see Sharp Money, according to the Sharp Report) and Milwaukee later this week - let’s take the Celtics Unders this week (quick joke: they should call it Clamp-Chowder Country, because of how good this team is defensively).

Other Trends:

1. When your best friend is out, sometimes it’s hard to play at your full potential; and this is exactly what we’re seeing with F Kawhi Leonard, who has been struggling to score to his potential with his buddy Paul out. Over his past five games, he’s only come CLOSE to his scoring prop once - it’s sitting at 27.5 in most books, and that’s high for a player who is consistently double-teamed coming up on the court. The Clippers will be fine - they dismantled the Bulls last night easily - but Kawhi isn’t scoring like the squares expect him to. It’s always hard betting against a superstar, but let’s take Kawhi’s Points Under this week as they take on the Grizzlies twice.

2. It seems like someone new is stepping up for the Knicks every single game, but that answer is almost never C Mitchell Robinson. While he’s a rebounding machine, his scoring has been desolate as of late; the books have placed his Consensus Points Prop at 7.5, a number he’s only hit twice in his past eight games. He has two of the toughest interior teams in the league this week (Miami & Cleveland), and in the past few games, he’s barely even taken a shot in a game. He gets my vote of no confidence this week, as let’s take Robinson’s Points Under.

3. The Chicago Bulls are a team that struggles in stretches, but they’ve won five out of their last seven and are really making a push to make the Play-In Tournament. They’re also learning to score, hitting over 110 points in five out of their last seven games – which doesn’t sound like a lot, but for Chicago, it absolutely is. They’ve hit three straight Overs, and they’re playing the Lakers, a team they just beat, and Charlotte, a game I think could be competitive, this week. We would rarely do this, but we always Follow the Trends - it’s hit in three straight games for Chicago, so let’s take their Over Total Points.

4. We’re at the point in the season where the Indiana Pacers have thrown in the towel. They’ve lost five out of their last six games, and have lost each of the past three by margins of nearly twenty points. Oof. They have failed to cover in three straight games (and five out of their last six), and they’ve got Milwaukee (the most “this team is just so good” team in the league) and OKC (the ATS Killers) this week – yeah, I think they’re going to just continue to not cover. Let’s fade Indiana ATS this week, and sit back while they bathe in their draft capital.

5. I’ve said it in these articles before, but one of my favorite players in the league is G Tyrese Maxey; the 22-year-old has taken on the scoring load whenever needed, and it’s because of the volume of shots he’s taking. One statistic I rarely ever bet on (but have been recently) is total three-pointers made, and Maxey is someone who you can generally get plus-money on Over 3.5 3’s made in a game. He’s done this four out of his last six games, and with Embiid and Harden both healthy (for the most part), he’s going to be expected to shoot more from the line. Let’s take a chance this week to start April off, and take his 3’s Over.

RECAP:
TOTD: Boston Total Points Under
Leonard Points Under
Robinson Points Under
Chicago Total Points Over
Fade Indiana ATS
Maxey 3’s Over

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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