Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (03/25/23)

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 3/21/23 RECAP: I told you about Austin Reaves, who went 2-0 this week on his assist numbers - the rest of the trends were up and down, though. JJJ cleared his points total in the first game and missed the second game by one point (1-1), Portland surprised me by beating the Suns and then getting blown out by the Bulls (1-1), Minnesota went WAYYY Over on their points (1-0), while Memphis blew out Houston twice (0-2). Then, for some reason, Blake Griffin hasn’t played all week, so nothing there! Overall, we went just above even this past week, at 5-4, moving our March total to 32-24 on the month.

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY: Uhh… the Memphis Grizzlies won’t stop scoring. I know, I know, they put up 151 on HOUSTON… but still, over their past six, the Over has hit five times, even at higher numbers. They’ve got Atlanta on Sunday, a game that should have a high total; I expect them to still be able to hit it. With Morant back, they've been clicking really well on offense. Memphis has torched me before, but the trends say to slam the Over when Memphis heads to Atlanta this weekend.

Other Trends:

1. I’ve written about him before, but Cleveland acquiring C Jarrett Allen has to be one of the best moves in recent memory for a team. He’s been really consistent this year down low, and he’s eating up boards for a team that’s playing really well recently. His rebound prop usually sits around 10.5, so let’s take his rebounding Over, because he’s hit over that number in three out of his last four, including last night when he missed it by one rebound. I’m confident that he’ll be able to grab boards this weekend against Houston at home – Allen Rebounds Over it is.

2. I absolutely love SG Klay Thompson; he’s by far one of my favorite players in the NBA over the past decade. But since Steph’s comeback, he simply hasn’t been the same; he’s only cleared his 21.5 Points Prop twice over his last six games. He’s consistently shooting 30-40% from the field over his last seven, which is concerning for a Warriors team trying to push past the Play-In Tournament; even last night, Poole was the #2 option for this high-scoring team. Let’s take Klay’s Points Under this weekend as he takes on Minnesota on Sunday.

3. The New Orleans Pelicans are Unders MACHINES. We’re seeing a crazy run by them in the O/U category, where they’ve hit the Under in each of their last four, and the Under has hit in ten of their last twelve. HUH? Their defense has also been rock solid as of late. Let’s take the Under against the Clippers and Portland this weekend. (As a side note… remember that one NOP fact I talked about a few weeks ago? Wins = Covers, Loss = No Cover? Yeah, that trend hasn’t broken yet. If they win, they ALWAYS cover, if they lose, they NEVER cover. Not an official bet, but something I love betting on).

4. With so many teams on crazy trends right now, it’s often difficult to figure out which are real and which are fake; but the Orlando Magic are GOOD. This is my official stance. They’ve covered ATS in five straight games, and Paolo Banchero is playing incredibly well. This is a team to watch as we close out the season, because it seems like everything is clicking for the young League Pass All-Stars. Let’s take Orlando ATS and keep up with one of the most exciting teams in the league, even if they’re out of the playoff race.

5. As someone who Follows the Trends pretty religiously, I haven’t had a ton of opportunities to talk about the Charlotte Hornets much; so here we go! They won a huge game last night against Dallas on the back of SF Gordan Hayward, who has quietly had a really solid year, averaging nearly 15 PPG. His assist numbers are staggering though, as his prop is around 4.5 in most books (sometimes 5.5 with boosted odds), and he’s dealing as the Hornets are clicking; over his past six games, he’s hit over 4.5 assists in five of them, and over 5.5 in four of them. He’s getting 30+ minutes on the court, and so let’s take the vet’s Assists Over for the Hornets wingman.

RECAP:
TOTD: Memphis Total Points Over
Allen Rebounds Over
Thompson Points Under
New Orleans Total Points Under
Orlando ATS
Hayward Assists Over

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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