Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (03/21/23)

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 3/18/23 RECAP: One of the best weeks over at FTT this weekend, as we hit a number of bets - let’s recap ‘em! Golden State went 1-1 on their covers this week, while Collins & Claxton both went Over in their games this weekend. Phoenix hit their total over easily, while Philly went 1-1 ATS and Middleton went 0-1 in his only game. This weekend we finished 5-3 for around two units, and pushed us to 27-19 in the month of March! We’ve got about a week and a half left of this month, and a FLURRY of games as we close out the season.

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY: SG Austin Reaves is HIM. After a career night against Orlando, Laker fans are already clamoring to have his jersey hung up in the rafters. Kidding aside, the kid is playing really well with Lebron out - since the star has been sidelined, Reaves is becoming more of a distributor - he’s hit Over his 3.5 Assists Prop in seven of his last eight. This seems like a lock going forward, as we’re still unsure of Lebron’s timeline - but as long as his highness is out, Reaves should get his teammates the ball. Let’s take his Assists Over, as he’s averaging well above his prop line over his last week.

Other Trends:

1. I’ve talked bad about the big man before, so I’ll backtrack a little bit - PF/C Jaren Jackson, Jr. is scoring at a really nice pace over his past four games. In his past four, he’s hit his Over 20.5 Consensus Points Prop by a wide margin, including last night. He’s hitting more three-pointers than ever in this recent stretch, and he’s getting over twenty shots a game on a consistent basis. His only downfall, which I’ve noted before, is foul trouble; even though he went Over on his points, he had five personal fouls by the time the third ended. Let’s be cautious, but I think that there’s enough points to go around for JJJ - let’s take his points Over.

2. Since the news broke that they may be shutting down their star PG, the Portland Trail Blazers have been on a tailspin. The sports books don’t understand that this team is often not competitive; they haven’t won in six straight, and they’re 1-5 in their last six ATS. They aren’t keeping games close this season in their losses, and they’re going to a hungry Utah team competing for a playoff spot much harder than they are. I’d ride with the trends on this one and fade Portland ATS, because they’re in their worst stretch of the season.

3. Another team that has been in a tough stretch are the Minnesota Timberwolves, but let’s talk about their totals today - they hit the Over in three straight games, and in five of their last six; this is because of a lack of defense on that side of the ball, and the creative playmaking of their current starting lineup. They’ve got Atlanta and Golden State this week, which makes for a prime opportunity to continue to hammer the Over, as these teams struggle to play defense whatsoever. Should be high-scoring affairs this week, so let’s take the Wolves’ Over.

4. For the first time this season, the Houston Rockets are COMPETING IN games. Yet, they aren’t scoring as much as you’d might expect; they’ve hit five straight Unders in the past week (including last night) and they seem to be binding it together to close this season. Houston’s defensive rating has been really solid over their past few games, and they’ve got Memphis twice this week - I expect nothing but Unders when these two defensive teams meet up on Wednesday and Friday in Memphis.

5. I’ll admit it, I forgot PF Blake Griffin was on the Boston Celtics. While doing research this week, I noticed that his line is at a hefty 6.5 points - which doesn’t seem like a lot for someone who is getting around sixteen minutes per game, but he has failed to reach that Over in four straight games. He was even in the starting lineup against Utah this weekend and he only took five shots! There are too many scorers on this talented team; let’s take Griffin’s Points Under, and watch him fade back into the free agency abyss after this season.

RECAP:
TOTD: Reaves Assists Over
Jackson, Jr. Points Over
Fade Portland ATS
Minnesota Total Points Over
Houston Total Points Under
Griffin Points Under

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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