Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (02/21/23)

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 2/14/23 RECAP: Because there was only one or two games, there’s not enough of a sample size to determine whether this past week was a success or not – here’s to the next twenty-or-so games!

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY:  Kevin Durant is going to be a huge presence in Phoenix - figuratively and literally. Someone who is really going to benefit from this is PG Chris Paul - who has been an assists machine over the past five games going into the All-Star Break. With more of the scoring load off of his shoulders, KD is going to feast on points, and CP3 is going to see his assist numbers continue to climb. His Consensus Assists Prop is hovering around 9.5, and I see him scoring a Double-Double pretty much every game. Let’s take his Over in Assists this week, especially in the first few games with his new 6 '10’’ hero.

Other Trends:

1. While much of the attention in New York has been taken up by the Nets this season, Madison Square Garden has been bumping with Knicks fans all year long. They’ve won three straight and have won by over eighteen points in each of their last two against Brooklyn and Atlanta, and have the best +/- in the league over that stretch. They’ve got Washington and New Orleans coming up this week on a back-to-back, but I think they’ve got the juice coming out of the break to beat both of these teams. Let’s take them ATS.

2. Atlanta is a team that, historically, has hit the over in 56% of their games so far this year, but there’s some serious regression to the mean happening with the Hawks, who are just a game below .500. The Under has hit in five out of their last seven games, and they’ve got Cleveland and Brooklyn to start their season again – I believe in these two teams to bring Atlanta down to earth again, and let’s take the Atlanta Under this week.

3. I love PF Paolo Banchero - I think he’s the real deal and looks a lot like a leader of a really good team in the future - but over the past five games, he’s been cold offensively. While his Consensus Points Prop is around 19.5, he’s only hit that ONCE over his past four games. He’s definitely going to be a star in this league, but right now, there’s not as much Magic in this rising superstar’s scoring. Let’s take his Points Under.

4. Don’t look now, but the Chicago Bulls are BAD. They’ve lost six straight and are floundering in the East, after starting off really hot in the conference. During this stretch, they haven’t covered once, and the Over has hit in only one of their past six. I’m not sure if I’m all for them continuing to lose, because I think they’ll get back in the W column soon, but I love taking the Under with this team. They can’t score, and they’ve got Brooklyn and Washington coming up - they’re officially the best UNDER team in the league, and I don’t see that stopping.

5. If Giannis is out for a bit, this might be the lockiest-lock of the article - but C Brook Lopez has been really, really good recently. Over his past five games (even with Giannis) he’s averaging 19 PPG - and he’s scoring at an extremely effective rate. He’s getting plenty of good looks at the basket and I’d look for that to continue over the next week - his Consensus Points Prop is around 13.5, and he’s hit that Over in two out of his four by a wide margin. If Giannis is out, look for him to feast on points.

RECAP:
TOTD: Paul Assists Over
New York ATS
Atlanta Total Points Under
Banchero Points Under
Chicago Total Points Under
Lopez Points Over

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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