Anthony P's NBA Model May 29, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR MAY 29, 2023

According to my predictive model, the Celtics are holding the reins with a -6.5 for this game. Handicapping this one is like trying to juggle chainsaws, given the wild oscillations between the first trio of games and the last three. I've got my worries about Butler - he's been more elusive than a greased pig in a rodeo lately, and we all got a ringside seat to the fallout from the last three games when he wasn't shining like the superstar we know he is.

I wrote about this in the overnight grind article.

The Heat and Celtics are neck and neck with betting limits teetering on their max, and the line dances delicately at 7.5. The smart money squad is backing the Heat at +7.5 and all eyes are on the line, waiting to see if it'll do a little shimmy up or down across the markets. The handle's set at a perfect equilibrium with 50/50, but the Heat are hogging the ticket spotlight with around 60%. It's no secret that the Celtics, at their home ground, are the expected favorites and a romping victory would hardly be a plot twist, especially given how game 6 played out. The Heat were just a heartbeat away from the finals and getting back on their feet and strutting their stuff might be a tall order. Plus, Jimmy Butler has pulled a Houdini act for three games straight. However, it's not all gloom and doom for the Heat. They've been like a well-oiled ATS machine, clocking in 11-4 ATS and 9-6 SU in their last 15 playoff games as an underdog. They've been making it rain for bettors this playoff season. So, buckling up and riding the Heatwave with the points seems like the way to go.

I'm taking the points

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