Anthony P's NBA Model March 31, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

Would you like to unlock all my VIP picks? Use promo code AnthonyP and get 1 month free or Join our free Discord server and ask @anthony p any questions you have.

NBA BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 31, 2023

The NBA has been a significant source of stress for me lately, and after spending numerous hours tracking line movements and injuries, I often find myself avoiding betting on games during this time of the season.

Overnight and early morning activity from the sharps has been quite busy, so let's assess how the betting model has performed in response to these early moves.

The under for the Raptors and Cavs game was steamed at 226.5, and it now stands at 224 at Pinnacle. Trent Jr. is listed as questionable for tonight's matchup. The NBA betting model projects a total of 222 for this game, which aligns with the line movement. With the Raptors focused on this crucial game and the 76ers likely to finish third in the East, I'm leaning toward the under in this contest.

Smart money came in on the Bulls at -8, and some books opened the line at -7.5. The line has since moved to -10, with Smith Jr. joining the list of injured and questionable players for the Hornets. Hayward and Oubre are also expected to miss the game, while Rozier is out. The model puts the Bulls at -6.5, but Oubre and Smith were not removed from the projections, so the current number could be slightly inflated but it makes sense. The Bulls have suffered double-digit losses to the Lakers and Clippers in their last two games and have not been particularly dominant. Caruso may miss tonight's game, and it will be the first time the Bulls are 10-point favorites this season. Which version of the Bulls will show up tonight is yet to be determined.

The Rockets' line has moved to -6.5, a 2.5-point shift from its opening number at market makers. Martin Jr. is listed as questionable for the Rockets, but his potential return might have influenced the latest line movement. This game was covered in the Overnight Grind article this morning.

The total for the Golden State game now stands at 242, with sharps hitting that number at 239. The model projects a total of 238, suggesting that the current number might be slightly inflated. As I've mentioned before, the Spurs struggle to score, and the Warriors have been playing solid defense lately. For this over to hit, the Warriors would need to score 135 or more points.

Finally, the under for the Sacramento game was hit at 232.5 earlier today, but another set of sharps targeted the over just half an hour ago.

Good luck, and happy betting!

Join the conversation for free in our discord server and ask me how you can get a free month of the Sharp App

Join Discord and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games