Anthony P's NBA Model March 30, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 30, 2023

With NBA action limited to just two games alongside baseball's opening day and a packed NHL schedule, managing three sports can be challenging. Nevertheless, we're all set to tackle it! Pinnacle, BetOnline, and Bookmaker have all raised their limits to 20k for the Bucks and Celtics clash, indicating their satisfaction with the -2.5 line. Bookmaker and Pinnacle initially opened at -3, while BetOnline posted a -3.5 yesterday afternoon. Currently, there's no sharp money on either side.

The Nuggets' line sits at -6, with Circus offering a -5.5. Some market makers had opened the line at -9 before the news about Jokic's questionable status broke. The line movement implies that he might not play tonight.

My betting model projects an 8.15% Expected Value (EV) on the Celtics tonight, estimating the game as a pick'em. According to my net ratings, the Celtics stand at +6.2 and the Bucks at 4.2; factoring in home-court advantage, the line should be set at 0.

It remains significant in the race for the Eastern Conference's top seed. A victory tonight would virtually secure the top seed for the Bucks, but their position isn't ideal.

The Celtics are on a roll, posting a 10-1 Against The Spread (ATS) record in their last 11 games after conceding over 125 points in their previous match. The Bucks, on the other hand, struggle against teams with winning records, going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. However, they have a strong 10-2 ATS record in their last 12 games with no rest.

Historically, the Celtics have fared well against the Bucks, posting an 18-7-1 ATS record in their last 26 meetings in Milwaukee and 34-16-1 ATS in the last 51 encounters overall.

The Bucks enter this game with no rest, following their match against Indiana. While Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday played only 32 minutes and Khris Middleton sat out. The Bucks experienced a similar situation in Denver recently and were blown out in the second half. Interesting!

With the line at 2.5 and my ratings, this would suggest that Boston is the better team on a neutral court. However, considering the uncertain status of Robert Williams and Grant Williams, the line might move a little but I don't expect a big move. Antetokounmpo and Holiday are not expected to miss this game, and Middleton should return after a night off.

Good luck, and happy betting!

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