Anthony P's NBA Model March 28, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 28, 2023

Today's NBA betting scenario appears to be less stressful, with projections running tight and minimal injury-related drama anticipated. However, the sharp report reveals some discrepancies between the model and sharp interest, particularly in the case of the game's total points. Let's delve into the details and identify potential value in this matchup.

The sharp report indicates a significant level of interest in one particular game, with the initial betting line at the sportsbook set at 235. However, some US markets opened the total as low as 231.5, creating a divergence between the model's projections and the sharps' preferences.

The betting model projects a total of 228 points for this game, suggesting an 8% expected value (EV) on the under. This discrepancy between the model and the sharp interest could offer an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the potential value presented by the under if you decide to support the model vs the sharp interest.

As the Atlanta Hawks prepare to host the Cleveland Cavaliers, the stage is set for an intense battle between two teams with impressive offensive firepower. While the betting model may favor the under, recent trends and statistics suggest that the over could be the smarter play. Let's examine the factors that could contribute to a high-scoring affair.

In the last two weeks, the Atlanta Hawks have ranked third in offense, scoring an average of 124.8 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have been no slouch on the offensive end, ranking eighth. However, Cleveland has also maintained a strong defense, ranking third and allowing just over 110 points per 100 possessions.

The over has been a strong trend for Cleveland, as evidenced by the following records: 7-1 in their last eight road games against a team with a winning home record, 5-0 in their last five road games, and 5-0 in their last five games following an ATS win. Similarly, the over has hit in four of Atlanta's last five home games, and when these two teams face off, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 7-3 in the last ten meetings in Atlanta.

With a few days of rest under their belts, both teams should be fresh and ready to push the pace, creating opportunities in transition and launching long-range shots. Atlanta, in particular, will be eager to secure a much-needed win, which could lead to an uptick in possessions as they aim to outscore their opponents.

Despite the model's preference for the under, the recent offensive success and trends of both teams indicate that the over could be the more profitable play in this matchup. As the Hawks and Cavaliers clash in what should be an offensively charged game, bettors may want to consider backing the over and not supporting the model in this play.

Good luck, and happy betting!

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