Anthony P's NBA Model March 27, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 27, 2023

Last night's NBA action left bettors scratching their heads. Golden State and Dallas underperformed, while the Lakers seemed to struggle even with LeBron's return. The Memphis-Atlanta game provided some excitement amidst the disappointment of Hawks fans, but late backers of the Raptors at -11 were left frustrated as Toronto secured a victory by only 10 points.

Focusing on tonight's matchups, Portland's injury woes could be problematic for bettors as they face the Pelicans. With the potential absence of up to four starters and Lillard's season status uncertain, the line has shifted from -9 to -11 in favor of New Orleans. Lillard's impact on the spread is significant, typically ranging from 3.6 to 4.2 points. Keep an eye out for injury updates.

The Indiana-Dallas game, discussed in the Overnight Grind, presents its own challenges with Luka's potential suspension and the Mavericks playing on back-to-back nights.

Detroit's injury struggles continue, but Giannis is listed as probable for Milwaukee. The line opened at -15 and has since moved to -17 and -17.5 at some books, while the model projects a -14.5 spread. Milwaukee has dominated Detroit in recent years, going 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 16-4-1 in their last 21. The Bucks have consistently won big against the Pistons, with an average margin of 21 points in their last six victories.

The Rockets, on the other hand, have covered only once in nine games when playing without rest. The current spread seems accurate without Brunson, but if he plays, the projection leans closer to -16.43. If he plays and the line is still at -13 or -13.5 we have value on the Knicks.

While Durant's return is imminent, he's not expected back for tonight's game. However, the Suns may welcome Ayton's return, providing a boost against a Jazz team missing Clarkson and with Markkanen listed as questionable. Phoenix recently broke an eight-game streak of failing to cover and now looks to build momentum for the playoffs. Booker and Paul's experience and offensive skills give the Suns an edge against a potentially depleted Utah squad but I don't many that can trust the Suns.

Good luck, and happy betting!

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