Anthony P's NBA Model March 26, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 26, 2023

A turbulent day unfolds in the NBA. The Mavericks are set to be at full strength, with both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in action. The betting line has shifted from 8.5 to -12.5. Doncic's recent statement about his dwindling enjoyment of the game has seemingly affected both his morale and the team's performance.

LeBron James is anticipated to return, and once confirmed, the line is likely to move toward -6.5 or -7. In the matchup between Atlanta and Memphis, no injuries have been reported. The model indicates a +8% Expected Value (EV) for the Hawks at their current +2 standing.

In the Cleveland game, no injuries have been reported, and the Cavaliers are widely expected to dominate. However, there is no value to be found in this matchup. For the game in Toronto, Morris, Beal, and Kuzma are all predicted to be absent, while Barns, Trent, and Achiuwa are also expected to miss the game for Toronto. This has led to a slightly inflated -9.5 line, according to the model.

With Damian Lillard likely to be out for the remainder of the season, the initial power rankings would have placed OKC as a 3.5-point favorite in their game. However, due to Lillard's absence and other injuries, the projection has shifted to -7, while bookmakers have set the line at -9.

In the Minnesota game, both Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns are not expected to play. Despite this, the line has moved down from -7 to -6.5. The model suggests that the line should be at -5.5 without the two-star players.

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