Anthony P's NBA Model March 24, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 24, 2023

Yesterday, the New Orleans Pelicans secured a victory and covered, despite some initial concerns. The favorites finished the night with a 3-1 straight-up (SU) record but continued to underperform against the spread (ATS). Tonight, the model indicates value in the Portland Trail Blazers, but the game is difficult to handicap due to numerous injuries on both sides.

As of 2:45 pm ET, the Bulls' DeMar DeRozan is listed as doubtful, while Alex Caruso is questionable, and Javonte Green is probable. The injury woes extend to the Blazers as well, with Jusuf Nurkic, Jerami Grant, and Anfernee Simons all expected to miss tonight's game. Consequently, the betting line has shifted in favor of the Bulls, moving from -2 to -4 this afternoon.

In this unpredictable and injury-riddled matchup, it remains to be seen which team can overcome adversity and secure a win. Both the Bulls and Blazers face the challenge of navigating their injury-laden rosters, and handicappers must consider the potential impact on each team's performance. Keep a close eye on the line movement and injury updates leading up to the game to make informed betting decisions.

As the NBA regular season inches closer to its conclusion, the Chicago Bulls continue to be an enigma. Just the other night, they suffered a blowout loss at home to a Philadelphia team missing James Harden, their second-best player. DeMar DeRozan, who is typically one of the league's most consistent performers, failed to make a single shot from the field. It's becoming increasingly apparent that the Bulls might be better off missing the playoffs, paving the way for a much-needed overhaul. A few more losses could potentially seal their fate.

On the other hand, the Portland Trail Blazers are clinging to their slim playoff hopes. To sneak into the play-in in the West, they would likely need to win all of their remaining games – a tall order. However, the Blazers recently snapped a six-game losing streak on the road, indicating that they still have some fight left. With players Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant listed as questionable, Portland is relying heavily on star guard Damian Lillard, who currently ranks third in NBA scoring and has a shot at the title down the stretch. However, his status is still unknown for tonight.

Friday night sees Portland as a 4 points-home underdog. Betting on the Blazers can be a rollercoaster, but predicting the level of effort Chicago will bring is equally challenging. If the Blazers can start strong, the Bulls may lose heart. The critical question is whether a depleted Portland roster can give them the necessary push. Confidence in that outcome remains shaky. Furthermore, with Pat Beverley on the court for the Bulls, Lillard may face stiff defensive resistance if he plays. As a result, Chicago can emerge as a modest pick for today's game.

Recent trends worth noting include the Bulls' 0-3-1 ATS record in their last four games against teams with a losing straight-up record and a 1-5 ATS record in their last six road games versus teams with a winning home record. The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, have struggled at home, with an 0-4 ATS record in their last four home games.

In this unpredictable matchup, it remains to be seen which team will rise to the occasion and secure a crucial victory as the regular season winds down.

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