Anthony P's NBA Model March 22, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 22, 2023

We hit the under in LA last night as per the model's projections and weren't disappointed. I didn't wager on it, but I did cash in on OKC +7, and they emerged victorious with a straight-up win.

For our loyal readers, you'll recall the model's Wizards predictions during the back-to-back clashes against Atlanta less than 2 weeks ago. Since then, they've gone 1-5 SU and ATS, displaying a dismal performance. Their defense has been porous, allowing nearly 122 points per 100 possessions, ranking second-worst over the past two weeks. They even conceded 122 points to the league's fifth-worst offense last night.

Denver has had its struggles too but showed improvement in the last three matchups, securing victories and covering the spread against the Nets and Pistons. On paper, this should be another walk in the park for them against a Kuzma-less Wizards, but the model suggests otherwise.

As for the Dallas/GS showdown, it's a tough call. The Warriors are on the road, raising a red flag. Luka and Kyrie's playing status remains uncertain, and the betting line has been constantly fluctuating. The Mavs opened as a 2-point underdog, shifted to +2.5, swung to -1, and have now settled at +1. With Doncic listed as probable and Irving questionable, my model projects this game at -2 with Luka and +2 without him, excluding Irving altogether. It's best to hold off on placing bets for this matchup until we get a clearer picture of the Mavs' situation.

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