Anthony P's NBA Model March 21, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 21, 2023

The Rockets' poor performance has reached a point where even the Warriors with 7 road wins this season can easily defeat them and most importantly cover the number. Although the model had some faith in the Rockets, their back-to-back games created uncertainty. The Memphis game also posed a challenge due to numerous players being listed as questionable. Despite significant line movements, the Grizzlies ultimately emerged victorious by 4 and not many were stuck on the wrong side of the move if they bet the game early. Early sharp money favored Charlotte, while Indiana received support later on, resulting in a Charlotte victory nonetheless.

One particular play stands out in the model – the under in the LA game, which has nearly 9% expected value (EV). The total opened at 235.5 before rising to 238. The sharp report shows interest in the over at 236, but the model disagrees.

The sharp interest in the over seems peculiar. A review of games dating back to March 2020 reveals no instances of a total this high between these two teams. Furthermore, none of their last 10 encounters reached that many points. The under has a 12-4 record in their last 16 meetings. When the Clippers play at home, the under is a near certainty, occurring in 25 of their 35 home games.

Over the past two weeks, the Clippers' defense has been outstanding, ranking fourth-best and allowing only 111 points per 100 possessions. OKC's offense has slipped to 23rd, scoring 114 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, the Thunder's defense has also been impressive, allowing the seventh-lowest points against per 100 possessions over their last seven games.

What are the sharps seeing in this matchup?

While the over trends for OKC are strong and they boast the second-fastest pace in the league, the Clippers, led by Leonard and George, can control the tempo to their advantage. The Clippers have gone over in 20 of their last 28 games after an against-the-spread (ATS) win, but the majority of other trends strongly support the under.

It's a battle between the model and the sharps. Which side will you choose?


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