Anthony P's NBA Model March 20, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 20, 2023

I had 2 NBA picks yesterday and we went 1-1. The model was strong on 2 games and it also went 1-1. We have a couple of interesting spots in the NBA as per the model.

The Warriors are on the road and an 11 points favorite against a Houston team that played yesterday. The model was strong on the Grizzlies at home versus the Mavs but Luka might be back and then we have a bunch of teams that are ~2 points off the projections.

Memphis will be without Williams JR and Jackson JR is also set to be out in this game. The Mavs are starting to look like the Lakers with Luka and Irving being the new James and Davis. There are reports out there that Luka will be back but not Irvin. The line moved from -1.5 to -2.5 for Memphis and some books are now posting a -3. If Luka comes back the line is where it should be and my model adjustments went from -5.5 Memphis to -3. If Luka and Irving don't play the line goes up from -5 to -5.5 and at the current number, we would have value on Memphis but I would like really like Jackson to be in the lineup! Jackson was not removed in my initial run of the model for those out wondered.

My model suggests the Warriors shouldn't be higher than 7 points favorite on the road against the Rockets. This doesn't factor in fatigue but I would add 1 to 1.5 more for fatigue so let's say -8.5. Will anyone sit for Houston in this game since they are on b2b? We don't know yet but nothing is available out there so we will have to wait. Either way -11 feels wrong for a team that is 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games, has only won 7 of 36 road games and owns the 3rd worst defense in the league on the road allowing 121.5 points per 100 possession, and the second worst in the last 2 weeks. The Rockets have been decent ATS in March however the 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS on no rest.

I cover the Indiana / Charlotte game in the Overnight Grind article: We have sharp interest on the Hornets.

For Monday's NBA games, an early shift has been spotted in the Charlotte Hornets vs. Indiana Pacers matchup. Initially, the Hornets were 3-point underdogs, but smart money swiftly backed Charlotte, moving the line to +1.5. Despite the majority of wagers and tickets supporting the Pacers, the line movement in favor of the Hornets signals sharp interest. My model (accessible with a PRO subscription) sets the Pacers at -1.5, factoring in the absence of Jackson, Mathurin, and Duarte from the Pacers, and Martin and Williams from the Hornets. If both teams were at full strength, the Pacers would still be favored at around -1, making the initial -3 line for the Pacers a bookmaking error. The game holds greater significance for the Pacers, who have not yet been eliminated from contention, unlike the Hornets. Will you trust the smart money or back the motivated team?

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