Anthony P's NBA Model March 16, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 16, 2023

The favorites dominated yesterday going 6-1 and 5-2 ATS. I wrote about the Bulls chances of winning and covering but they did exactly what we suspected them to do... mess up. They did in the 3rd quarter and they were never able to recover.

We have some big numbers on the board tonight and not much value.

Murray is set to play tonight and the line moved to -14. The model has this game at -11 and Ivey will be back for Detroit. Nonetheless, they are still missing many players. The Nuggets have been one of the worst teams in terms of efficiency differential in the last 2 weeks and their defense has been allowing 120 pts per game in their last 6. I'm staying away from this game.

My model finds that the Raptors line is inflated. They opened at -5 and moved to -6 this morning. The Thunder have won six of their last seven games and are playing some of the most explosive basketball in the league, largely thanks to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Also, OKC has the #3 best defense in the last 7 games allowing 109 pts per 100 possession and #1 in spread differential at +8.4. On the other hand, the Raptors are coming off a win against the Denver Nuggets who look beatable by any team right now. They have struggled on the offensive end this season and are not expected to match up well against the Thunder. OKC beat them up on Nov 11th and won by 19. My concern here is the way they play on the road vs at home. They are 13-20 SU but 19-11-2 ATS on the road. I would take the points in this game.

We have another big number in Milwaukee and 4 questionable players for the Pacers. If they all play the number should be around -11 but the books set this game at -13 and it moved to -13.5. It's too early to get into this game with all the uncertainty around the Pacers.


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