Anthony P's NBA Model March 15, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 15, 2023

I hope everyone stayed away from the Pels since Ingram didn't play. If you play the Pels then you didn't read yesterday's article!

NBA fans are in for a treat tonight as the Chicago Bulls take on the Sacramento Kings at home. The Bulls have opened as 2.5 underdogs, which has surprised many in the basketball world, given the team's overall perception for bettors.

Even more surprising is the sharp money on the Bulls, which has left some people scratching their heads. However, based on various metrics, the Bulls should be the favorites tonight, with my model indicating that they should be two-point favorites.

The Bulls have been inconsistent this season, which has created frustration for bettors. However, they have a decent record against the spread at home, with a 17-15 record. Additionally, the Bulls have the rest advantage over the Kings, who just played a big game against the Milwaukee Bucks. It's common for teams to fade after playing a big game, and the Bulls will be hoping to take advantage of any fatigue the Kings may be experiencing.

In their previous games, the Bulls blew away the Nuggets and pulled away late in the fourth quarter for another road win against the Houston Rockets. For the Bulls to win tonight, they will need DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine to be at the top of their game. The duo combined for 63 points in their last game, but they have been known to make some costly mistakes in important moments.

Over the last 14 days, both the Bulls and Kings have been among the highest-scoring teams in the league, with 126 and 122 points per 100 possessions, respectively. However, their defenses have been among the worst in the league. While the Bulls can keep up with the Kings' scoring based on recent performances, there is a risk involved. The Bulls are ranked 22nd in aORTG (scoring per 100 possessions), and if their offense goes cold for stretches in this game, the Kings can easily pull away.

In conclusion, the Bulls vs. Kings game promises to be a high-scoring affair, with both teams capable of putting up big numbers. While the Bulls have been inconsistent this season, they have the potential to come out on top in this game, and the oddsmakers may have underestimated their chances by the soft opening numbers.



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