Anthony P's NBA Model March 14, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 14, 2023

That was a brutal game from the Pacers yesterday. Scoring under 100 pts in Detroit is unacceptable. Their team total prop was 115.5 pts if I recall. This game should have gone over but the smart money knew something we didn't.

The model is very strong on the Pelicans today projecting a spread of -4 while the markets are set at -1. This line has been moving from +1 to -1 back and forth since yesterday night and still hasn't fully settled. Davis is probable for this game and he's factored in my projections. The Lakers defensive game has been solid and ranks 5th in the last 7 games allowing only 111 pts per 100 possession. The Pels offense finally had a decent game against Portland behind a huge game from Murphy however before that they were barely scoring an average of 104 pts in their last 4 games. In a nutshell, the Pels might be having a hard time scoring tonight and the Lakers have been hot on the road even though being 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings in New Orleans.

The Lakers were hyped up in their last game versus the Knicks and they dropped that one. Looking at the standing this is a very important game for both teams if they want to increase their chances of a play in qualifications,

Lastly, my projections include Ingram and if he plays I would support the model and the Pels however if he doesn't play I would pass on the value.

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