Anthony P's NBA Model June 9, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

Would you like to unlock all my VIP picks? Use promo code AnthonyP and get 1 month free or Join our free Discord server and ask @anthony p any questions you have.

NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JUNE 9, 2023

The NBA Finals are heating up as we approach Game 4, set to be a crucial encounter between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. The Nuggets are leading the series 2-1 after a historic performance by Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in Game 3, where they each achieved 30-point triple-doubles, marking the first instance in NBA history that teammates had accomplished this in a finals game.

The Nuggets, who had a regular-season record of 53-29, have demonstrated resilience and focus throughout the series. Coach Michael Malone, despite acknowledging the historic performance of his team in Game 3, emphasizes the need for improvement and refuses to dwell on past successes. This mindset could prove vital in maintaining their momentum and not becoming complacent with their lead.

However, the Nuggets' 2-1 series lead doesn't guarantee victory. History suggests the opposite. Seven of the last 14 NBA Finals series that stood at 2-1 were ultimately won by the trailing team, demonstrating that a 2-1 lead can be quite precarious.

The Heat, who had a regular-season record of 44-38, are not a team to be underestimated. They have proven their mettle by reaching the NBA Finals as a No. 8 seed. Star player Jimmy Butler is confident that the team will come out with a lot more energy and compete at a high level in Game 4. Heat forward Kevin Love also emphasizes the importance of staying the course and adhering to their game plan, proving that the team remains confident despite the series deficit.

The Heat will need to address the significant rebounding deficit they had in Game 3, where the Nuggets outrebounded them 58-33. Coach Erik Spoelstra believes there are correctable aspects to their game that could turn the tide in their favor for Game 4 but I don't buy it.

Taking all these factors into consideration, it's clear that both teams have the potential to take Game 4. The Nuggets have shown their ability to dominate, but the Heat's fighting spirit can't be ignored. Given the home-court advantage and the urgency of the situation, I expect the Heat to put forth a competitive performance and possibly tie the series. I felt the same way in game 3 and we all know how that went.

As for the betting angle, the current line is Denver -3.5 with an over/under of 210.5 points. The Heat's motivation to level the series, coupled with the home-court advantage, may make them a good bet to cover the spread. However, at the book, it's mostly been Nuggets money and the ticket % is pretty much matched with the handle.

Join the conversation for free in our discord server and ask me how you can get a free month of the Sharp App

Join Discord and ask @anthony p any questions you have on other games